長城汽車(2333.HK )：11月銷量增速不及預期，庫存波動影響較大，維持“增持”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：增持
●核心結論
事件：公司發佈2019年11月產銷快報，全月銷售汽車115,162輛，同比下降13.08%；1~11月累計銷售汽車954,290輛，同比增長3.81%。
11月銷量同比增速低於預期，庫存波動因素影響較大。11月狹義乘用車批發銷量204.3萬輛，同比下降4.6%，長城汽車同比增速跑輸行業8.5pct；1-11月狹義乘用車批發銷量1,895.0萬輛，同比下降10.1%，長城累計同比增速仍然大幅跑贏行業13.9pct。公司2019年和2018年經銷商加庫存節奏有所差異，2018年加庫存主要在11月份，12月份繼續加庫存到高位，2019年公司通過9-10月兩個月的持續加庫存，渠道庫存已經較高，後續繼續加庫存動力不足。2018年11月和2019年10月企業大幅增加庫存導致的高基數效應，可能是11月同比、環比增速承壓的原因。主流車型銷量環比仍有增長，炮銷量保持在5000輛以上。具體車型來看，11月哈弗H6、M6、WeyVV6環比均有增長，哈弗F7銷售環比小幅下滑6.7%。新能源汽車環比增速較高，但月度銷量尚未回升至上半年水平。新上市皮卡車型炮銷售6,259輛，繼續保持在5,000輛以上。
短期波動不改公司長期成長。2019年三季度以來公司密集推出旗下多款車型的年度改款，及全新車型VV7GT，發佈皮卡炮品牌，2019年後續將繼續推出年度款新車。2020年，公司還將推出全新平台的2款全新SUV、炮越野版、歐拉全新EV。公司密集推出新車型帶來銷量的穩步提升，同時公司作為SUV龍頭企業，受益於當前行業產能出清過程中的集中度提升。我們維持公司2019-2021年預測EPS為0.48/0.61/0.66元，按12月10日H股股價5.66港幣，對應H股10.5/8.3/7.8倍PE，維持“增持”評級；按12月10日A股股價8.82元，對應A股18.3/14.5/13.5倍PE。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期；價格戰加劇
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