中信里昂:基本情景料恒指明年见29,600点 倘阿里纳港股通可吸南下资金
中信里昂首席策略师莫爱德出席记者会时指,该行基本情景料明年恒指将见29,600点,意味回报达10%,主要因为恒指内中资股占比较高,该行对MSCI中国指数回报预测接近20%,如只考虑MSCI香港指数,相关回报目标仅1-2%左右,认为假如香港社会不稳情况持续,香港企业或会继续受影响。
他指出最近阿里(09988.HK)来港上市,如未来可纳入港股通,料可吸引南下资金,因为过往内地投资者投资电商或互联网企业渠道相对少。他续指,针对美国拟要求赴美上市中概股须接受跟美国相同会计准则与监管,中概股在架构上或遭针对,而阿里来港第二上市将为其他中概股铺路,另外或有机会最终演变成主要上市。
莫爱德认为明年新兴市场将走出阴霾,虽然今年新兴市场每股盈利呈1.2%的负增长,但料明年其每股盈利增长将达14%,表现跑赢每股盈利增长9%的已发展市场,而其资产配置仍将偏好北亚市场,特别是半导体及电商行业,吁增持内地、台湾、韩国的资讯科技企业以及内地消费行业,对中资金融股及工业股则吁减持。
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