吉利汽車(0175.HK )：11月銷量保持正增長，低端車型受惠旺季效應，維持“中性”評級，目標價16.2港元
機構：招商證券
評級：中性
目標價：16.2港元
11月銷量保持正增長，低端車型受惠旺季效應
■11月銷量同比增長1%，增速維持正增長符合預期
■終端價格偏弱，領克還在蓄力期，明年新車型推動總銷量恢復增長
■基於邊際改善的交易性機會12月後接近尾聲，維持中性評級
11月銷量保持正增長，低端車顯著受益旺季效應
1）總銷量情況：公司11月銷量為14.3萬輛，同比增長1%，環比增長10%。銷量連續兩個月正增長符合我們此前預期。1-11月累計銷量123.1萬輛，同比減少13%，完成全年目標136萬輛的91%。去年12月公司因控制庫存銷量急剎車，銷量僅9.3萬輛。因同比基數低，預計公司12月銷量同比增長五成以上，公司全年銷量137萬輛左右，有望略超目標銷量。2）銷量結構：按月環比增長1.3萬輛的車型中，以遠景系列為主的低端車型貢獻度較大，遠景X3/遠景S1/新遠景/遠景SUV等合計增量6.8千輛，同比增長24%，佔月總增量超過一半，反映了低端車銷售的季節性特徵，即在旺季末期銷量增速較快。3）重點車型：博越/繽瑞/繽越銷量為2.2萬輛/8.2千輛/1.3萬輛，帝豪EC7/帝豪GS/帝豪GL為1.7萬輛/1.4萬輛/6.8千輛，保持環比低個位數增長。領克品牌銷量1.4萬輛，同比/環比均增長約1%。
終端定價偏弱，領克仍在蓄力，新車型助力明年銷售恢復
1）終端市場：我們12月上旬的渠道調研顯示，公司主力車型終端折扣率與上月接近，環比未見收窄，仍然處於較高的水平，該趨勢與我們關於行業需求疲軟的預判一致。2）高端產品：領克品牌代表吉利產品線向上突破的方向（售價15萬元人民幣以上），對公司長期發展趨勢至關重要，但旗下三款車型仍沒有單車月銷量過萬輛。從結構看，領克01（15-20萬元人民幣）銷量佔比30%且趨於下降，相對低價的領克03（10-15萬元人民幣）佔比過半，反映合資品牌產品線向下延伸，新興中國品牌崛起的難度加大。目前看領克向上突破趨勢仍不明朗，尚需更長時間檢驗其競爭力。3）明年產品線：預計明年行業環境仍是存量競爭為主導，公司已經建立體系競爭力，有充足資源應對行業逆風，公司計劃推出6款以上新車型，更新部分老化的產品線，樂觀預計推動銷量雙位數增長。
維持中性評級和目標價16.2港元
維持目標價16.2港元，估值為11.7xFY20EP/E，相對歷史平均（10.7x）溢價10%。最近三個月公司股價從最低點反彈近五成，已充分反映四季度銷量跌幅逐步收窄的邊際改善效應，當前估值11.1xFY20EP/E基本合理，維持中性評級。預計12月後基於邊際改善的交易性機會接近尾聲，市場重新關注跨年度成長的機會。雖然公司銷量明年有望恢復增長，但在存量競爭格局下，其盈利彈性與2016-17年的產品強週期相比則相對有限。
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