友邦保險(1299.HK)：短期因素不掩長期價值，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
短期受突發事件影響，但整體仍穩健
集團在中國香港的業務受短期因素的影響，2019年三季度新業務價值為9.8億美元（+1%），但如若不計入中國香港業務，新業務價值增長14%。同期，年化新保費減少8%至14.4億美元，新業務價值利潤率增長6個百分點至67%，總加權保費收入上升8%至81.7億美元。
中國香港業務拖累新單業績同比分析，中國香港的零售獨立財務顧問渠道的新業務價值大幅下降，抵消了專屬業務和銀行保險渠道的新業務價值增長速率。集團中國香港業務第三季度新業務價值的增速錄得雙位數下降，其中本地客户的新業務價值增長錄得雙位數，但被中國內地訪港客户的新業務價值下降所抵消。
中國內地業務漸成主力，保持快速擴張態勢
同期，中國內地業務繼續成為集團增長最快的市場分部，重要性快速提升，將逐漸成為集團主要的業務市場。集團的中國內地業務正保持積極的擴張態勢，於2019年2月獲准在天津和河北省石家莊籌建營銷服務部，且皆取得令人鼓舞的早期業績。根據2018年財報，中國香港業務的內含價值佔比集團32%，中國內地業務的內含價值佔比18%；中國香港業務的新業務價值佔比集團41%，中國內地佔比23%。
其他東亞市場分部穩步擴張
泰國業務實現穩健上升，代理渠道及夥伴合作渠道皆錄得增長；新加坡業務受躉繳保費下降影響，新業務價值同比保持不變；馬來西亞業務在代理和夥伴合作渠道的貢獻下實現穩健增長；其他市場分部的新業務價值增長主要由印尼、菲律賓及越南等新興東盟國家的強勁表現所帶動。
投資建議：維持盈利預測，維持“買入”評級
集團於近期重金聘請李源祥先生為候任集團首席執行官兼總裁：可見其對中國內地業務的重視程度，但同時亦有可能，在外資壽險企業的逐步緊逼下，集團或迫切尋求對內地業務先發優勢的構建。整體而言，我們認為友邦保險護城河穩固，維持2019-2021年每股內含價值預測，並維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：（1）中國內地的中高端壽險市場競爭加劇；（2）經濟預期惡化；
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