寶龍地產(1238.HK):提升的合約銷售目標和穩固的基本面,“買入“評級,目標價6.23港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:6.23港元
寶龍地產將2019年合約銷售目標由人民幣500億元調升至人民幣550億元。2019年1至10月合約銷售同比增長52.4%至人民幣505.1億元,相當於公司調整後2019年銷售目標的91.8%。2019年下半年可售資源預計將達到約人民幣631億元,相當於約40.9%的去化率即可完成調整後的全年的銷售目標。
充裕的土地儲備與較低的單位土地成本將維護公司的毛利率。截至2019年6月30日,公司土儲總建築面積達到2,437萬平米,單位土地成本為每平米人民幣2,701元,僅相當於公司2019年上半年銷售均價的16.5%。長三角地區的土儲佔到了總土儲建築面積的72.6%,而一二線城市的土儲佔到了總土儲建築面積的57.3%。
2019年上半年核心淨利同比上升48.9%至人民幣12.45億元。由於交付建面和交付項目的銷售均價上升,公司2019年上半年收入同比上升32.0%至人民幣122.51億元。我們預計2019至2021年核心淨利將分別達到人民幣27.37億元、人民幣37.11億元和人民幣49.33億元。
我們給予公司6.23港元的目標價,相較於公司2019年每股估值12.46港元有50%的折讓,也分別相當於8.5倍2019年核心市盈率及0.8倍2019年市淨率。投資評級為“買入”。風險因素:低於預期的合約銷售,商業物業項目的延遲開業。

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