旭輝控股集團(0884.HK)：11月銷售靚麗，拿地積極，權益比回升，維持“強推”評級，目標價8.51港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強烈推薦
目標價：8.51港元
事件：
12月4日，旭輝控股公佈，2019年11月公司實現合同銷售金額220.2億元，同比增長69.4%；實現合同銷售面積146.6萬平方米，同比增長91.8%。合同銷售均價15,000元/平米，同比下降11.7%。1-11月，公司累計實現簽約金額1,778.0億元，同比增長35.9%；實現累計簽約面積1,069.4萬平方米，同比增長30.7%。
點評：
11月銷售220.2億、同比+69%，增速靚麗，全年大概率超1,900億計劃
11月，公司銷售金額220.2億元，環比+15.7%、同比+69.4%；銷售面積146.6萬平米，環比+21.6%、同比+91.8%，銷售持續保持高增速；銷售均價15,000元/平米，環比-4.9%、同比-11.7%。1-11月，累計銷售金額1,778.0億元，同比+35.9%，較前值+3.7pct；累計銷售面積1,069.4萬平米，同比+30.7%，較前值+6.3pct；累計銷售均價16,600元/平米，同比+3.8%。公司全年計劃銷售1,900億元，對應同比+25.0%，截至目前，公司銷售目標完成率達93.6%，考慮到公司深耕供需關係良好的一二線熱點城市，且佈局集中在長三角、中西部、環渤海等城市羣，並且可售貨值充裕，預計全年大概率超1,900億銷售目標。
1-11月拿地1,242萬方，同比+13%，拿地/銷售面積1.16倍，拿地積極
根據公司月度通訊，11月，公司新增5幅地塊，位於深圳、青島、寧波等一二線城市，新增規劃建築面積115.5萬平米，環比+54.4%，對應總地價55.7億元，環比+22.3%，平均樓面地價4,822元/平米，環比-20.8%，一二線城市土儲進一步豐富。1-11月，公司新增規劃建築面積1,241.6萬平米，同比+12.8%，拿地銷售面積比1.16倍，拿地積極，拿地權益比例71%，同比+15pct，拿地權益比回升明顯；對應總地價611.5億元，同比-0.5%；平均樓面地價4,925元/平米，同比-20.4%，拿地均價佔比銷售均價30%，高質量擴充土儲。公司通過公開市場、合作併購、舊改、商業勾地等多元化方式擴充優質土儲，公司土儲較充裕、聚焦於核心二線城市，保障後續穩健發展和結算利潤率。
投資建議：銷售靚麗，拿地積極，權益比回升，維持“強推”評級
旭輝控股起步上海，高品質全國化，2018年深耕一二線，聚焦城市羣，銷售額7年實現28倍高增長，融資成本上市後持續下行，負債率一直安全可控，2012-18年淨負債率維持在50%-75%，利潤率穩定並在近三年逐步提升，實現規模、利潤率、槓桿率三者動態均衡發展。公司佈局聚焦一二線+城市羣，保證2019年銷售和業績穩增。我們維持公司2019-21年每股收益預測分別為0.92、1.15、1.44元，現價對應19/20年PE分別為6.5、5.2倍，維持目標價8.51港元，並維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：房地產調控政策超預期收緊以及行業資金超預期收緊
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