瑞銀:下調2020年香港銀行股的投資評級 降恆生(0011.HK)評級至“中性”
瑞銀髮表研究報告,認為雖然不良貸款週期似乎可控,但仍下調2020年香港銀行的投資評級。該行指,不難理解香港銀行股的股價正處於歷史低位的原因,因為隨着環球減息,銀行的淨息差將會收縮;加上香港經濟目前正處於技術性衰退,因此信貸成本將會上升。
該行平均將2020年香港銀行股的每股盈利預測下調6%至8%,將恆生銀行(0011.HK)
的投資評級由原來的“
買入
”下調至“
中性
”,東亞(0023.HK)
的投資評級由原來的“
中性
”下調至“
沽售
”,而中銀香港(2388.HK)
則是該行目前唯一給予“
買入
”評級的銀行股,這是基於其較低的中小型風險敝口、較多樣化的貸款組合及較便宜的估值。
雖然中小企是香港本地經濟支柱,並是政府推出紓困措施的主要對象,但該行認為香港銀行對本地中小型企業的敝口非常低,截至2019上半年,僅佔總貸款約1%。該行估計,恆生銀行較同業有更高的中小型企業覆蓋,相當於其上半年貸款總額的16%。
瑞銀列出對香港銀行股最新的目標價及投資評級,詳列如下:

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