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麥格理:重申萬洲(0288.HK)“跑贏大市”評級 目標價10.8港元
格隆匯 12-09 11:41
麥格理髮表的研究報告指,據傳媒報道內地計劃按個別情況豁免部分美國進口大豆及豬肉的關税,該行相信萬洲國際(0288.HK) 很有可能可受惠相關政策,對公司於美國的鮮豬出口業務及其位於中國的下游包裝肉業務有正面幫助,相信如獲豁免關税,對其盈利可帶來潛在上行,重申“ 跑贏大市 ”評級,目標價10.8港元。
該行指出倘成功獲批,豬肉關税將削35個百分點,國務院已於今年5月開始首輪關税豁免的申請,而次輪則於8月尾開始,萬洲早前已申請相關豁免,如成功獲批關税可削35個百分點至37%,而現時美國出口至中國豬肉關税達到72%。
該行估計史密斯菲爾德出口規模佔鮮豬整體約20-25%。當中,中國佔整體出口約四成,而關税開支分別是由史密斯菲爾德及雙匯共同承擔,假如價格及規模維持不變,關税削減35個百分點可助公司節省1.78億美元的税款,相當於今年經營溢利預測的9%。
該行指出美國每年豬肉產量約1,400萬噸,當中20-25%出口至世界各地,如關税獲豁免,相信可帶動出口至中國,並推高美國鮮豬價格,相信相關因素對公司的鮮豬業務盈利轉向有很大的正面作用。史密斯菲爾德的鮮豬業務於今年第三季錄得500萬美元虧損,該行現時估算第四季可轉賺5,880萬美元。

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