富瑞:料內地11月運動服零售額按年有大幅增長
富瑞發表研究報告指,與9月及10月的疲弱情況相比,11月內地運動服的零售額可能會按年有大幅增長,認為零售折扣活動仍然受控,庫存水平和銷售計劃同步。
富瑞估計,FILA及李寧(2331.HK)11月份的零售銷售將會加速增長,預料該兩個品牌在10月及11月,與今年第三季相比將在很大程度上實現可持續增長。該行又指,今年冬季,多個品牌都面臨更大的折扣壓力,主要由於農曆新年是在1月而非2月,較平時早一個月,相信大多數主要品牌的折扣活動都在按計劃進行。隨着11月份的提振,冬季銷售趕上銷售計劃,反映出庫存水平仍然健康。
該行認為,更大的靈活性可以緩解主要運動服務品牌的疲弱銷售,而靈活性是由改進的補貨計劃、對零售活動更全面的監控,以及購物中心的輔助等因素所推動。有關因素能在需求波動下控制折扣。
富瑞又提到,安踏體育(2020.HK)的下行風險包括新的零售模式未能推動FILA的增長、Amer Sport的執行力差過預期,導致現金流及利潤下降,以及集團收購的品牌虧損超出預期。同時,李寧的下行風險就有未能提供長期的利潤指導、毛利率的改善較預期弱、庫存短缺令收入增長疲軟,以及商店效率改善未如理想。
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