高盛:重申港鐵(0066.HK)“買入”評級 目標價54港元
高盛發表的研究報告指,港鐵公司(00066.HK)在收市後公佈儘管受近期社會不穩影響,料撇除24.3億元撥備及投資物業重估收益後,2019財年核心盈利將不少2018財年的113億元。公司估計7-11月社會事件帶來的財務影響約為16億元,當中已計及載客量按年下跌14%、維修車站及設施的開支、聘請額外人手及為商户提供租金優惠和寬減等。該行留意到公司已於12月2日回覆正常營運時間,並重申有意維持漸進派息政策。
該行認為今次的「盈利增長」指引符合該行預期,並較部分市場人士預計更好,相信今年公司核心盈利將增4%至117億元,當中包括69億元來自可持續收入,37億元來自物業入帳等。

高盛相信公告可助緩解市場對公司盈利表現的憂慮,以及近期社會事件對公司未來派息比率方面的影響,由於現時仍未知社會事件會否持續,該行的現金流分析指出公司有足夠的可持續現金流以支持漸進派息政策,隨着未來數月香港社會有所穩定,其鐵路業務亦快速復甦,而其車站及租賃物業業務更多是由本地市場主導,不受訪港旅客趨勢影響,未來將維持審慎。目前股價較資產淨值折讓16%,較歷史平均值低一個標準差,重申“買入”評級,目標價54港元。
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