医药商业行业专题:批发苦尽等甘来,零售坚守见云开
机构:国信证券
行业增速稳健,政策扰动明显 目前,医药商业行业整体处于稳中有变阶段。从上市公司 2019Q3 财务数据来看, 企业营收和利润状况整体报喜,但由于政策频繁扰动,市场担忧情绪显著。
医药批发:生死不离现金流,成长看好产业链 与市场观点不同,我们认为批发企业近期现金流改善的主因在于应收账款金融工 具的运用,使得账面上的经营性现金流入增加,而下游医院的回款并未明显加快, 医药批发企业现金流压力仍然较大。不过,随着带量采购的持续推进,未来可关 注医保基金预付款的落地情况。此外,在两票制、处方外流、带量采购等一系列 政策改革下,我们看到了高毛业务占比提升、批零一体化、工商一体化这些确定 性的行业增长机遇。
医药零售:政策扰动明显,未来需强化服务属性以构建渠道壁垒 2019 年以来,受益于健康需求提升、医保门店增加、集中度提升、税改等因素, A 股四大零售药店的营收和净利润同比增速均超过 15%。不过,药品集采降价的 外溢效应使得市场对零售药店低频高毛的商业模式和未来的增长有所担忧。我们 认为短期内受益于集中度提升,布局尚未完整的上市连锁零售药店仍有一定的增 长空间,长期则可参考美国医保控费后的药店发展路径,而日本的保健品及药妆 模式难以复制,零售的本质是“商品+服务”,未来零售药店的竞争必然是健康服 务能力的竞争,这也是企业构建渠道壁垒的关键。
风险提示 批发:行业政策变动风险,如器械零差率,对医药批发公司盈利能力造成影响; 带量采购回款不及时、企业融资成本上升,恶化现金流状况。 零售:执业药师监管进一步趋严、职工个人医保账户调整的政策风险;处方外流 不达预期、新开门店速度及并购整合不达预期等。
投资建议:医药批发推荐国药股份、上海医药;医药零售推荐大参林、 益丰药房 批发板块整体调整后经营性现金流仍然承压,相对看好北京地区批发和全国精麻 龙头国药股份和承接大量进口创新药批发、工商一体化龙头上海医药。零售板块 短期受到政策不确定性压力,推荐买入店龄结构新、外延潜力大的大参林,增持 精益管理标杆的益丰药房。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.