阿里巴巴-SW(9988.HK)：構建商業操作系統，引領數字經濟時代，給予“買入”評級，目標價220港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：220港元
核心觀點：
為未來投資、履帶式前行，浪潮之巔的互聯網巨頭。阿里自成立以來 即定位底層服務商角色，各板塊之間相互依存聯繫、共同構建商業生 態。企業發展上，阿里是“為未來投資”、各項業務漸次“孵化成長、 成熟變現”、“履帶式”前行的生態發展戰略，國內電商平台現金牛供 血成長型的跨境電商和雲計算、孵化型的新零售、大文娛、各類創新； 商業模式上，則是“引流搭建生態、服務變現流量”的內涵。
核心商業內生增長：下沉為契機，流量與轉化率更上一層樓。低線市 場是阿里本輪用户基數擴張的驅動力，活躍度提高、人均消費上升將 繼續增加生態流量價值；天貓、聚划算、村淘、天貓國際+考拉、淘寶 +閒魚已形成“無所不能”的供應鏈體系；千人千面信息流推薦提高買 家與賣家的匹配效率，直播等內容性媒介提高雙方成交轉化率。新零 售、本地生活將實體零售與即時性需求納入阿里商業，從供應鏈擴容 角度進一步推動生態延伸。
基礎設施日臻完善：商業操作系統的底層搭建。螞蟻金服和菜鳥實現 了阿里生態“商流、物流、資金流”的三流合一，交易全流程的用户 數據積累成為阿里賦能全渠道商業的基礎原料；輔以數據挖掘技術與 雲計算中台支撐，阿里已將基於用户數的流量變現模式昇華為數據變 現，實現各業務模塊的價值疊加。
盈利預測及估值探討：預計 FY2020-FY2022，阿里巴巴收入分別為 5262/6897/8732 億 RMB，對應 40%/31%/27%增長；non-GAAP 淨利 潤分別為 1212/1513/1924 億 RMB，對應 30%/25%/27%增長。我們 分大商業、雲計算及戰略投資三大板塊進行分部估值，對應美股合理 價值 226 美元/ADS，對應港股合理價值 221 港元/股，對於公司的美 股和港股，我們均給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：互聯網新勢力崛起衝擊；孵化型業務減虧不達預期；新零 售開拓不達預期；前沿技術和用户習慣持續研究需要持續投入。
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