瑞银胡一帆料内地明年经济增长略低於6% 通胀首季见顶
瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监及首席中国经济学家胡一帆发表报告指,料中国2020年GDP增长目标将定於约6%水平。实际增长料略低於6%,取决於中美能否达成首阶段贸易协议。未来需关注重大事件,有今年12月举行的中央经济工作会议(CEWC)及明年3月全国人大会议,政府将披露其来年增长目标、政策优次、改革纲领及预算。
倘贸易协议撤回已开徵对华产品关税,则中国经济增长将迎来上行空间;不过,倘谈判拉倒及美国落实被暂缓及计划中关税,则中国经济增长则迎来下行压力。
胡一帆称,内地明年料维持支持性的货币及财政政策,为经济下行提供缓冲,如透过更多调降存款准备金率(RRR)、减息及提高地区政府发债限度。
报告表示,内地消费价格指数(CPI)10月升至3.8%创近七年高,今年首十个月均值为2.4%。非洲猪瘟肆虐内地,致生猪供应短缺,猪肉价格自3月起急升推高内地通胀。内地政府采取措施恢复生猪生产。但由於生猪周期通常达14个月,措施短期对猪价的影响料有限。猪肉价格升势料持续,进一步提高通胀,并料於明年首季见顶。
另边厢,生产者价格指数(PPI)今年徘徊约0%水平,下半年更转负。生产者价格收缩料持续至年底,源於去年能源价格基数较高及工业需求疲弱。明年内地PPI料转正,主因能源价格基数效应消褪及本地需求趋稳。
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