交銀國際:內地超級豬周期加劇短期通脹 滬指明年底部料2,700點
交銀國際(03329.HK)今日(3日)舉行2020年投資展望發布會,指全球經濟周期築底修復。該行稱,2019年確實是「峰迴路轉」的一年,與2018年底時普遍的悲觀情緒相反。現在,中國經濟周期領先指標正在見頂,並很可能在未來幾個月開始放緩。考慮到中國經濟周期指標的領先性,假設貿易談判能取得一定的進展,中國經濟的名義變量(如工業增加值和公司盈利增速等)應該會開始修復。
在中國經濟周期指標率先回升之後,歐美的經濟周期也正在築底。儘管如此,這些都是同步或滯後的經濟變化。2018年的拋售潮後,市場已經顯著反彈。因此,市場價格在2019年的漲勢,很可能已經反映了這些滯後經濟變量現在的回暖,除非今後基本面的改善大幅超預期,從而進一步大幅推升股市。
不過,交銀國際表示,中國的超級豬周期使短期通脹前景惡化。豬瘟摧毀的中國生豬存欄量幾乎相當於整個歐盟的豬存欄。中國生豬存欄量的變化往往領先豬價上漲約六個月。因此,通脹壓力很可能持續飆升到春節過後,並在短期內限制貨幣政策的選擇。這種貨幣政策的困窘很可能會阻礙股市短期上行的動能和空間。
該行稱,在未來的十二個月內,上證綜指的交易區間底部很可能約2,700,而上證850天移動均線始終不能突破自2010年以來3,200點的頂部。即使指數的現價或可暫時突破該水平,這個長期移動平均線的潛在趨勢還是在下降的。該行的股債收益率模型的交易區間實際預測分布是2,500至3,500。除非引入外來因素,例如國外流動性的大量流入,否則中國股市將仍然是一場零和博弈。
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