華泰金融：升正榮地產(6158.HK)目標價至6.1港元 給予“買入”評級
華泰金融(香港)發佈報告，給予正榮地產(06158.HK)“買入”評級，目標價上調24.5%至6.1港元。
該行表示，正榮地產將繼續提高盈利能力並降低槓桿。公司已在核心城市累積豐富的土地儲備(在中國房地產板塊中排第三名)，使其更有信心公司有能力維持理想合約銷售水平，同時保持未來數年合理的盈利增長。
華泰金融上調正榮地產評級和目標價是基於其2020年資產淨值每股預測11.00港元基礎上收窄折讓至45%(之前折讓50%)。在更新2019-2020年房地產市場展望及更新對公司的物業項目竣工假設後，華泰金融將正榮2019-2021年股東應占核心利潤預測提高了5%-13%。
有利的土地儲備定位支持合約銷售
正榮2019年前10個月的合約銷售額為人民幣1，030億元，完成全年銷售目標的78%。華泰金融認為正榮已做好了保持在“千億銷售俱樂部”的準備，這要歸功於其將土地儲備集中在1、2線城市(截止2019年6月底佔其總建築面積的71%)。需着重指出的是，正榮較大多數同業更專注於“單核城市”(即位於中西部的省會城市，如重慶、成都、武漢、鄭州、西安、長沙、南昌等城市，這些城市人口大並持續有人口淨流入、經濟增長前景較好、住房需求保持強勁、商品房均價仍然處於很健康合理水平)。
根據華泰金融的測算，預計正榮2020年中23%的總資產值(GAV)來自“單核城市”中競爭較小的市場，這在該機構所涵蓋的開發商中是排名第三。因此，華泰金融預期正榮2020年的合約銷售將穩定增長至人民幣1，510億元。
信用狀況逐步增強
華泰金融稱，對正榮自上市以來一直積極優化其財務結構表示樂觀。公司擁有多元化的融資渠道，包括定期發行美元債券(2019年共10次發行)，在2019年前10個月募集了21億美元，獲得1.3億美元的銀團貸款，發行資產支持證券人民幣3.6億元及進行股票配售。穆迪和標普相繼在4月對公司信用評級的上調也加強了正榮的融資能力。正榮地產2019年上半年的平均融資成本為7.6%，該機構預期公司的加權平均融資成本將逐步下降至2020年的7%左右。考慮到公司的信用狀況不斷增強，預期正榮的股東應占核心利潤率在2019-2021年將改善至8-9%水平。
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