申洲國際(2313.HK)：開源節流穩定增長，龍頭地位無出其右；首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價 131.6 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：131.6 港元
投資要點
運動賽道繼續成長，大客户黏性高穩增長，公司份額有望提升： 公司四大客户分別為 Nike、Adidas、Uniqlo 及 Puma，其中運動類為主，休 閒類為輔。根據歐睿諮詢數據，2019 至 2021 年中國美國日本的運動服飾市 場規模 CAGR 將達 11%、6%和 4%，保持穩定增長。據彭博數據，四大客户 未來三年均保持淨利潤複合增長 11%以上。其次，公司與客户合作近 20 年， 份額上佔 Nike 17-18%，佔阿迪 15%，佔優衣庫 12-13%，佔 Puma 40%， 在行業增長且大客户精簡供應商的趨勢下份額有望繼續提升。
產能每年 10-15%提升確保業績增長，佈局海外，與客户需求精準匹配：
產能提升：公司訂單處於供不應求狀態，未來增長取決於產能提升。產能每年預計保持 10-15%增長。在越南及柬埔寨新建 3 個工廠，至 2023 年預計新 增 3 萬工人。東南亞對於外資准入門檻和環保要求趨嚴，公司進入海外較早，先發優勢明顯。精準匹配客户需求：與客户提前一年滾動確定產能需求，精準制定擴產計劃，提前一季確定具體款式和訂單金額，做到供需精準匹配。
一體化生產助客户降低成本，交付期領先同行 20 天-1 個月:一體化將面料工廠與成衣工廠一體化融合，將原來各自進行的面料研發、設計、打樣、生產及之後的檢測等環節全部在一個工廠內完成，提升生產效率，降低客户成本。交付週期基本可以達到 15 天，比同行業快 20 天到一個月。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價 131.6 港元：
公司作為行業龍頭，訂單供不應求，隨着產能的提升，未來增長確定性較強，我們預測公司 2019-2021 年歸母淨利潤為 50.38/56.39/64.51 億元，分別同比 增長 11.0%/11.9%/14.4%，對應 EPS 分別為 3.36/3.76/4.3 元人民幣。給予目 標價 131.6 港元，對應 2020 年 35 倍 PE，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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