澳優(01717.HK)：自家品牌配方羊奶粉保持高速增長，啟動股份回購計劃，維持”買入”評級，目標價15.7港元
機構：輝立證券
評級：買入
目標價：15.7港元
投資概要
澳優發佈今年首9個月業績，收入按年增23.9%至46.8億元，若單看第三季，收入增長達28.3%，主要受到自家品牌配方羊奶粉及牛奶粉增長拉動分別增40.3%及30.6%，因銷售網絡及品牌發展持續加強，佔總收入比例按年增7.3個百分點至87.7%。私人品牌及其他則減少23.1%，主要由於戰略調整，以優先投放更多資源於自家品牌業務。
首9個月及第三季的毛利率基本維持在52%，前者經調整後EBITDA增60.9%，期內錄得衍生金融工具之公允價值變動錄得會計虧損3760萬元，純利按年增37.1%至6.24億元，經調整後純利增67.6%，至6.62億元。
澳優董事會已決定不時於公開市場進行股份回購，初步代價為1億港元，並視市況而定，可能在適當時議決進一步擴大股份回購規模。股份回購反映澳優對本身業務展望及前景充滿信心。
早前沽空機構發佈報告阻擊澳優，澳優委聘獨立顧問進行獨立審查，並已發放兩個階段報告。根據第一階段報告，澳優進口嬰幼兒配方奶粉記錄，在各重大方面均與海關記錄貫徹一致，並進一步發現2017年羊奶粉進口量較沽空報告中估算的年進口量高154%，故誇大收入及利潤的指控並不成立。
於此同時，AusnutriaB.V.僱員佔整體僱員開支的實際比例低於沽空報告，故盈利水平被誇大的指控也不成立。另外，獨立顧問並無發現任何直接證據顯示收購雲養邦40%持股權益為虛假交易。
根據第二階段報告，沽空機構對澳優向消費者提供誤導性銷售資料等指控，為由於不同司法權區之披露規定差異，IT缺失，翻譯錯誤及客户代表誤解而引致，對佳貝艾特嬰幼兒配方羊奶粉描述並無重大影響。獨立顧問也無法先任何證據支持沽空機構聲稱指名分銷商由現任或前任行政人員祕密控制。
至於ESG報告所公佈的包裝材料及資源消耗量並無隨嬰幼兒配方奶粉收入增長而上升的指控，獨立顧問則發現大致趨勢一直，並無任何證據顯示收入被誇大。我們維持買入評級，目標市盈率25倍，目標價15.7元。（現價截至2019年11月26日）
估值結論
我們維持買入評級，目標市盈率25倍，目標價15.7元。需要留意的風險包括，中國乳業政策變化，市場競爭惡化以及原材料價格大幅波動。（現價截至2019年11月26日）
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