睿見教育(06068.HK)：高速增長持續，內生動力仍強，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價5.5港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：5.5港元
投資要點
我們的觀點：FY2019公司新加入3所學校（自建1所+收購2所），學校總數量達到了9所。FY2020公司再新開三所學校，未來增長動力仍然充足。我們預計2020-2022財年公司收入將為21.0、25.7、30.5億元人民幣，同比分別增長24.9%、22.4%及18.6%；核心淨利潤將為5.3、6.7、8.0億元，同比分別增長24.4%、24.7%及19.9%。維持“審慎增持”評級，維持目標價5.5港元，對應2020-2022財年PE分別為20、16和13倍。
FY2019業績繼續高速增長：2019財年，公司實現營業收入16.82億元，同比增長34.9%，超出我們預期1.1%，其中68.1%來源於學費及住宿費，31.9%來源於配套服務。2019財年公司實現核心淨利潤4.29億元，同比增長33.1%，超出我們預期1.2%。
全年新增CB影響，淨利潤率略有下降：FY2019公司經調整匯兑差異、股權激勵後的核心淨利潤為4.29億元，同比增長33.1%，核心淨利率達到25.5%，同比下降30bps。2018年6月公司獲得來自平安保險的5億港元CB，於2019財年全年計入公司長期負債並使得財務費用率自4.6%提升至6.4%，帶動核心淨利率略有下移及產生匯兑虧損調整項。預計2020年6月2億港元將按照該轉股日的前90日均價折價20%進行轉股，將帶動公司財務費用略有下移及衝抵此前匯兑虧損。
學生數量穩步增長，現金儲備充足：公司現金及等價物與抵押銀行存款共計11.6億元，現金儲備充足。截至2019/20學年公司學生人數達到60116人，同比提升10.5%，預計2020/21學年公司順德、巴中、雲浮三所新學校將繼續逐步提升學生人數。
FY2019末期派息每股0.042元，估值已處歷史低位：公司宣佈派發末期股息每股0.042元，派息率47.7%，派息比例行業領先。目前公司估值已處歷史低位，僅為2019財年核心淨利潤的15倍PE。
風險提示：1）中國教育行業競爭激烈；2）公司收購、自建等不達預期；3）收購標的整合不及預期；4）國家教育行業政策變動；5）VIE架構政策風險。
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