粵海投資(00270.HK):30年東深供水特許經營,現金流與派息穩健增長,給予“審慎增持”評級,目標價18.55港元
機構:興業證券
評級:審慎增持
目標價:18.55港元
投資要點
粵海投資為廣東省政府旗下的優質企業,現經營四大業務板塊,擁有30年東深供水項目特許經營權,主要資產回報率高,在盈利提升中不斷增加派息,實現了利潤和估值的雙提升。我們認為,公司穩健的資產回報和不斷優化的財務狀況將保證未來公司有能力實現每年派息額不斷增長,盈利與估值雙提升仍然是促進公司股價上漲的兩大重要因素。我們首次覆蓋粵海投資,給予“審慎增持”評級,SOTP估值得到目標價18.55港元。
公司擁有東深供水項目30年特許經營權,對香港供水採用“統包總額”的付費模式,每隔3年由廣東省政府和香港政府定期商定下個三年每年的水價總額。東深項目是公司最大的利潤來源,佔比超過60%,穩健增長的盈利有望至少持續到2030年。另外,公司積極發展中國內地的原水供應、自來水供應和污水處理項目,大部分項目也有合理的回報率,驅動公司水資源板塊業績的不斷增長。
公司在物業板塊通過優質的存量項目和新增項目共同驅動業績增長,2020年開始除本身運營的購物中心和寫字樓帶來的穩定租金收入外,也能夠錄得較為可觀的物業出售收入。公司在物業板塊也保持穩健的發展策略,主要以優質存量項目連同適量規模新增項目的經營和開發共同發展。
公司其他業務板塊的資產成熟且優質,整體經營較為穩健。其中,興六高速公路為公司帶來穩定的業績貢獻;兩個火電廠受益於煤價的下跌預計能實現盈利的好轉;百貨營運板塊仍然較為依靠一家成熟百貨店貢獻主要業績,整體業務仍然受到較大的競爭壓力;酒店板塊,運營的5家酒店中,內地的三家酒店運營較為穩定,但香港的兩家酒店受到2019年年中開始的社會事件影響,業績下滑明顯。
風險提示:未來香港水價低於預期,新項目建設不及預期,地產政策大幅收緊
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