中國生物製藥(01177.HK)2019年三季報點評：龍頭穩健增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆前三季度業績符合預期。公司前三季度實現收入193.2億元（+22.8%），其中Q3單季收入67.9億元（+13.1%）；歸母淨利潤22.6億元（+2.5%），扣除收購泰德權益產生的無形資產攤銷和未實現的公允價值調整影響，調整後歸母淨利潤為26.0億元（+15.7%），其中Q3單季調整後歸母淨利潤9.3億元（+10.9%）；調整後每股盈利20.65分（+14.0%），整體業績符合預期。公司在手現金61億元，Q3單季度派息2港仙。
◆新產品推動抗腫瘤線快速增長。抗腫瘤產品收入42.0億元（+83.3%），佔收入21.8%。安羅替尼預計前三季度貢獻超20億元收入，新適應症軟組織肉瘤已於19年6月獲批。隨着更多適應症獲批，安羅替尼有望維持快速增長併成為公司抗腫瘤條線最重磅品種及最大單品。其他產品佈局全面，雷替曲塞、達沙替尼、卡培他濱收入同比+39.9%、+47.6%、+29.8%。新產品中硼替佐米與來那度胺前三季度分別貢獻1.1億元/1.3億元收入，有望受益於19年新醫保目錄調整實現放量，推動腫瘤線產品持續快速增長。
◆肝病與鎮痛產品增長疲軟、心腦血管產品穩健增長。肝病產品實現收入49.7億元（-0.7%），佔收入25.7%，增長乏力；其中恩替卡韋系列產品中潤眾收入23億元（-9.2%，Q3單季同比-12.1%）。鎮痛產品實現收入16.5億元（+0.8%）；其中氟比洛芬酯注射液凱紛收入9.2億元（-33.3%，Q3單季同比-33.1%）。心腦血管產品實現收入25.0億元，佔收入13.5%，厄貝沙坦/氫氯噻嗪片、瑞舒伐他汀鈣量增價減，同比分別增長20.8%和23.6%。肝病與心腦血管線上述產品受帶量採購擴面的影響仍在，但收入佔比已隨新產品上市大幅下降。
◆研發標杆，進入新一輪收穫期。公司是國內醫藥行業研發標杆，前三季度研發投入就達到20.5億元（+20.4%），佔總收入10.6%。在研產品471件（約有40個處於報產階段，PD-1單抗、阿達木單抗、重組凝血八因子、布地奈德等重磅大品種有望於19~20年上市）。公司創仿並重的戰略成效顯著，潛力品種眾多，預計19~21年每年有望上市超10個新產品。
◆維持“買入”評級。公司當前新產品佔收入比重達20.6%，研發穩步推進，後續新產品上市梯隊有序，維持公司19-21年的EPS預測分別為0.26/0.29/0.33元，同比增長-64.1%/12.7%/13.8%。公司質地優秀，是國內醫藥行業研發標杆，研發進入新一輪收穫期，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：藥品帶量採購風險，招標價格壓力，審批政策風險
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