中國燃氣(00384.HK)：城燃銷氣增長穩健，接駁快速發展，維持“買入”評級，目標價34.23 港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價:34.23 港元
核心觀點：
2019/20上半財年業績基本符合預期。公司公佈了2019/20上半財年的業績，公司實現營業收入279.26億港元，同比下降3.3%，歸母淨利潤為49.10億港元，同比增長16.2%，基本符合預期。收入的下降主要是由於管道與貿易的銷氣量負增長和液化石油氣業務收入的大幅減少。
城燃銷氣量增長穩健，毛差預計趨穩。2019/20上半財年，公司天然氣總銷售量為118.37億立方米，同比增長7.8%，增速回落較快。城燃銷氣量增長穩定，同比增長15.4%至68.74億立方米。我們預計FY2020-2022公司的城燃氣銷量仍可維持較快增速，分別同比增長18.3%/17.3%/14.3%。上半財年內公司整體毛差穩定，較去年同期下降0.004元/立方米，我們預計毛差未來三年趨穩。
燃氣接駁保持穩定，鄉鎮煤改氣快速發展。2019/20上半財年，公司實現燃氣接駁收入為60.56億港元，同比增長14.0%；工程設計及施工經營收入為7.34億港元，同比下降4.3%。公司新增居民接駁用户293.41萬户，同比增長15.8%，其中新增城鎮居民用户超預期，同比增長21.6%至171.70萬户。接駁費方面，城市燃氣和鄉鎮氣代煤項目平均接駁費較穩定，分別為人民幣2,524元/户（-25元）和3,006元/户（-32元）。未來公司煤改氣業務將會繼續推進，我們預計FY2020-2022公司的居民接駁總户數為567.29/612.68/655.12萬户。
盈利預測與投資評級。2019年11月25日中國燃氣（00384.hk）收盤價為31.70港元。我們認為公司未來受益於中俄管線通氣，管道燃氣與煤改氣業務持續推進，我們預測FY2020-2022EPS為港幣1.90/2.26/2.54元。由於公司業績增長預期較好，我們基於2019/20財年18倍PE給予公司合理價值為34.23元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。煤改氣實施不及預期，中俄管道通氣不及預期，上游天然氣價格快速上漲的風險。
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