新秀麗(01910.HK):2019年3季度業績差於預期,給予“收集“評級,目標價18.40港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:18.40港元
2019年3季度業績差於預期。收入同比下滑2.5%至9.22億美元。Tumi的收入同比下跌0.2%,嚴重差於預期。2019年3季度電商業務收入同比下滑0.6%,這是過去幾年中首個季度出現下滑。毛利率同比下滑1.7個百分點至55.7%,主要受到2季度末開始生效的額外關税的影響。淨利潤同比下降29.8%至5,300萬美元。
分別下調2019-2021年每股盈利預測16.3%、3.9%和3.0%至0.129美元、0.167美元和0.191美元。預期中美貿易戰將在2019年4季度以及2020年上半年逐漸緩和,這將減輕公司北美市場業務所承受的壓力。我們分別下調2019-2021年收入預測1.4%、1.8%和2.3%。我們分別下調2019-2021年毛利率預測0.5個百分點、0.5個百分點和0.7個百分點至55.8%、56.5%和57.0%。我們預期公司將在2020年繼續維持嚴格的費用控制來減輕利潤率承受的壓力。
下調目標價至18.40港元並下調至“收集”評級。公司2019年3季度疲弱的業績表明業務環境比我們所預料的更有挑戰性。我們將目標價從19.10港元下調至18.40港元以反映我們對盈利預測的調整。我們的新目標價分別相當於18.3倍、14.0倍和12.3倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率,以及8.2%的上升空間,因此我們下調至“收集”評級。

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