同程藝龍(00780.HK)：住宿繼續滲透低端市場，預計4Q交通Take rate回升，維持“買入”評級，目標價17.1港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：17.1港元
投資要點
3Q19業績：營收和盈利略超預期(3%)。3Q19同程藝龍實現收入20.62億元(YoY+22%)，超我們預期3%；毛利潤僅增14%至13.8億，毛利率由3Q18的71.6%下降到66.9%，低於我們預期(69%)。經調整淨利潤為4.19億，同比增長33.2%，Non-IFRS淨利率由18.7%升至20.3%，符合我們預期。?MPU如預期增長迅速。3Q19，公司MAU為2.43億，(YoY+13.4%)，MPU達2,980萬人(YoY+31.9%)，其中8月單月MAU達2.5億，MPU達3,000萬；公司約有85.5%的註冊用户居於非一線城市，約有63.3%的新增MPU來自三線及以下城市(3Q18:58.8%)。同時GMV創新高達476億(+21.7%)。
在線住宿：交叉銷售率升至26%,平台增速超40%，深耕低線。3Q19，公司住宿預訂服務收入為6.94億，同比增加34.5%，其中平台增速超過40%，其中低線城市的低星酒店增速超過80%，高線城市的低星酒店增速超過50%；此外交叉銷售率已達26%；分銷渠道業務佔比在下滑至約8%。?在線交通：因12306官方上線候補搶票，Takerate同比依舊下滑，但環比有一定提升。我們估算3Q19整體交通業務的Takerate為3%左右，較去年同期下滑約1個百分點，但較2Q(2.7%)有一定提升，我們預計4Q地面交通輔營需求加強，預計4Q機票Takerate將回3.5%，地面交通Takerate將回至3%，預計全年takerate約2.7%。
投資建議：我們看好公司高於行業的增速和較強的盈利能力，但考慮到交通Takerate下滑的風險，我們將FY19/20年收入由73.8/91億調整至74.3/93.5，調整後淨利潤為15.2/20.6億，基於DCF重估目標價為17.1港元，對應19/20年20/15倍PE，維持“買入”評級。目前公司PE為15.5x。
風險提示：1）行業政策風險；2）自然災害、政治等突發事件風險；3）行業競爭激烈，標品進入門檻較低；4）公司供應商集中度高。
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