中國燃氣(00384.HK)：上半年業績符合預期，未來展望樂觀，維持“買入”評級，目標價36.85港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：36.85港元
投資要點
2020上半年財年業績符合預期。2020上半財年公司收入同比下降3.3%至2793億港元，毛利同比增長25.7%至81.7億港元，公司權益持有人應占利潤同比增長16.2%至49.1億港元，扣除一次性或非經常性損益影響及人民幣兑港幣貶值3.7%的影響，公司權益持有人應占核心淨利潤同比增長25.%，符合市場預期。
銷氣量增長迅速，增長業務發展迅猛，鄉鎮煤改氣加大回收力度：2020上半財年公司城鎮燃氣總售氣量同比增長15.4%至68.74億方，其中居民、工業、商業及加氣站分別同比增長18.3%、18.2%、14%、-6.1%至16.2、36.7、10.8和5.1億方氣，居民毛差同比改善明顯，抵消了工業、商業及加氣站的毛差下降，公司總體毛差由0.625元下降至0.621元。公司增值業務由上年同期的10.11億港元大幅提高118%至22.1億港元，增長迅猛。上半財年公司新增接駁293.4萬户，同比增長15.8%，其中城市項目和鄉鎮氣代煤項目分別同比增長21.6%和8.4%至171.6和121.7萬户。上財年末公司一共通氣了100萬户鄉鎮氣代煤用户，回收款項24億元，預計2020年財年公司將新增通氣用户150-200萬户，回收款項50億元。
預期展望樂觀。隨着更多的鄉鎮氣代煤用户通氣，公司的燃氣銷售將持續保持高速增長，預期增速為25%以上，公司同時將增值業務的毛利率從40%提高至50%以上，而城市燃氣毛差從0.60提高至0.61元人民幣。
我們的觀點：中國燃氣（0384.HK）短期受益於鄉鎮氣代煤的接駁及通氣氣量影響，中期受益於俄氣輸入，公司東北三省的項目將會受益，我們將公司2020-2022財年營收分別下調10.4%、9.3%和8.3%至648.8、797.7和944.7億港元，主要反映LPG單價下降，歸母淨利潤下調4.4%、8.3%和7.3%至96.2、111.2和130億港元，EPS分別為1.84、2.13和2.49港元，維持“買入”評級，目標價從37.4港元下調至36.85港元。
風險提示：俄氣進入的進度較慢，城鎮煤改氣進展緩慢，氣源成本大幅上漲。
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