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蒙牛乳業(02319.HK):君樂寶缺口有所彌補,蒙牛全球化進程加速,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-27 15:56

機構:國金證券

評級:買入

事件概述

蒙牛於11月25日發佈公告,公司擬收購Lion-Dairy&Drinks(雄獅乳品飲料公司,簡稱“LDD”)100%的股權,收購對價為6億澳元(約31.87億港元)。收購完成後,LDD將成為蒙牛全資子公司。

事件點評

蒙牛收購對價僅為13倍PE,收購性價比較高。LDD是澳大利亞第二乳企,主要從事生產及銷售乳品及飲料組合(包括奶類飲品、酸奶、白奶、果汁及飲料、植物基產品等),在澳大利亞多個細分品類中市佔率均排名第一。蒙牛計劃收購對價為6億澳元,對應2018年13倍PE,對應2019年1倍PB(截至2019年8月30日,LDD淨資產為5.96億澳元),性價比較高。

此次收購將為蒙牛帶來多個方面的協同利好:1)蒙牛計劃未來將把部分新西蘭進口UHT奶轉入LDD的生產設備進行生產,從而節省掉需支付OEM的溢價,進一步提升高端UHT奶的利潤率;2)LDD掌握大量的高質量澳洲奶源,蒙牛收購LDD後將產生較強的原材料採購協同效應,能夠助力蒙牛實現更高的採購效率和更低的採購價格;3)蒙牛將把LDD的品牌整合至中國的品牌組合中,屆時蒙牛將擁有一個跨地區、跨國家的優質品牌;4)LDD在澳洲具有龐大的冷鏈分銷能力,擁有可觸達3.5萬名客户的冷鏈分銷網絡,收購LDD符合蒙牛的國際化戰略,助力蒙牛在海外的進一步拓展。

全球化進程加快,千億目標更進一步。近兩年蒙牛海外佈局加速,收購LDD後,將與Burra、貝拉米在澳洲形成全產業鏈覆蓋,整合後有望成為澳大利亞第一乳品企業。另外,此次收購LDD可以有效彌補蒙牛因剝離君樂寶而帶來的收入缺口,同時新收購的貝拉米與LDD利潤率均高於君樂寶,對蒙牛利潤端也會有一定的提振。我們認為,在多方協同利好效應下,蒙牛與LDD都將實現收入端與利潤端的共同提升,蒙牛千億目標更進一步。

盈利預測

假設2020年LDD開始並表,我們預計2019/2020/2021年蒙牛分別實現營業收入777.68億元/858.74億元/954.01億元,分別上調3%/13%/13%,分別同比+12.7%/+10.4%/+11.1%;歸母淨利潤分別為70.07億元/51.32億元/60.86億元,分別上調1%/2%/2%,分別同比+130.2%/-26.7%/+18.6%;摺合EPS分別為1.78元/1.31元/1.55元,對應PE分別為15X/21X/18X(扣非後對應19年PE為25X),維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

收購進度不達預期/協同效應不達預期/海外拓展不達預期/行業競爭加劇。

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