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《大行报告》中信建投予阿里巴巴(09988.HK)「买入」评级 目标价224元
阿思达克 11-27 11:40

中信建投发表报告表示,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)完成在香港第二上市,发行5亿股新股,另有7,500万股超额认购权,按照每股176港元的定价,阿里巴巴最多在港集资1,012亿港元,该行认为香港第二上市,完善了阿里巴巴全球资本布局。另外阿里巴巴在港股的股票跟美国的阿里巴巴ADR可以相互转换,参考华泰证券的GDR和腾讯的ADR,该行认为未来股票和ADR的价差会比较小。另一方面,因为阿里巴巴属於第二上市且同股不同权,所以短期内还不会纳入沪港通。该行认为参考同股不同权的入选标准,需要六个月的等待时间。

该行指,维持对阿里巴巴「买入」评级,予其美国存托股份(ADR)目标价为229美元,对应港股股价为224港元,该行估计阿里於2020财年至2022财年度活跃买家数分别为7.33亿、8.21亿及9.11亿,广告货币化率分别为2.62%、2.7%及2.8%,佣金率分别为2.33%、2.5%及2.6%。

中信建投认为,阿里巴巴买家数还有2亿增长空间。阿里巴巴的国内活跃买家数为6.93亿,蚂蚁金服国内的活跃用户数是9亿,两者合并的活跃用户数为9.6亿,所以该行认为活跃买家数至少还有2亿的增长空间,可以借助蚂蚁金服来导流。阿里巴巴收到蚂蚁金服33%的股权後,两者的协作将更加紧密,推动普惠金融和电商下沉。现阶段,考虑到整体广告市场放缓,该行认为货币化率将不会快速上升,现阶段主要的目标还是增加用户数和提高ARPU。

该行称,交叉销售的空间较大。目前阿里巴巴国内零售的活跃买家数已达6.93亿,但是其中只有25%的用户使用过零售以外的业务,所以生态内部导流的空间巨大。

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