植耀輝: 港股27,000點阻力大 阿里(09988.HK)短期料續造好
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股昨日(26日)走勢反覆，27,000點繼續好淡拉鋸，始終兩大變數亦即中美貿易談判消息時好時壞，本地局勢氣氛上略見好轉，但暫時亦未談得上恢復正常狀況，所以大市短期仍只會處於窄幅上落。值得一提的是A股，筆者以往曾指出成交金額反映內地投資氣氛，而昨日滬深成交量又顯著跌至不足3,000億元人民幣，反映氣氛又變得相當審慎，情況亦似乎對A股略為不利。一旦A股走勢轉弱，可能亦會拖累港股表現矣。另外，本周美國亦將踏入感恩節假期，且看消費股如創科(00669.HK)及偉易達(00303.HK)能否受惠。
亦不得不談談昨日登場之阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價表現。阿里股價首日登場表現相當不俗，全日計亦升6.56%，總算沒有令捧場客失望。不過要緊記其股價主要參考隔晚美國ADS收市價(昨晚收市價為190.45美元)，以一股ADS相當於8股普通股計算，合理價約為185.69港元，而昨日港股收市價則呈約1%之溢價，某程度上可解釋為部分基金追貨以及衍生工具因素。由於隔晚阿里ADS繼續有好表現，收報194.7美元，上升2.23%，即大概189.83港元，相信今日(27日)股價料可繼續造好。
阿里上市，對港交所(00388.HK)亦可能有正面幫助，皆因曾有大行預期阿里上市後將可刺激港股總交投上升至少一成，這亦不難理解，皆因騰訊(00700.HK)過去正股及衍生工具總成交便佔大市相當比例，相信未來阿里亦會出現相似情況。
不過，投資者最擔心的還是港交所「太花心」，追求倫交所不遂，便移情至西班牙交易所。交易所合併甚至「搶親」並不少見，各大交易所近年亦積極進行併購以增加影響力以及實行跨時區交易。只是若港交所再出高價搶購，則可能又會令投資者「寢食難安」。何況港交所股在255元以上阻力相當大，所以不宜在現階段追入。
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