燃气行业专题报告：供需格局生变，期待美好明天，维持“推荐”评级
机构：长城证券
评级：推荐
核心观点
事件：近期发改委取消天然气门站定价，天然气价格市场化程度进一步提升。对此点评如下：
现状：天然气上游集中度高叠加燃气需求高增，气源价格易涨难跌
天然气上游集中度高。2018年中石油、中石化、中海油国内天然气销量分别为1724、242、133亿立方米，分别占全国天然气表观消费量的61%、8%、5%。截止2018年末，中石油国内天然气管道占国内总里程的75%。?2018年下游输配环节城燃公司行业集中度CR5为27%，明显低于上游开采进口环节行业集中度。按照城市管道燃气销量计算，下游输配环节主要城燃公司市场占有率分别为华润燃气9%、新奥能源6%、昆仑燃气5%、中国燃气4%、港华燃气3%。
2017年~2018年，环保政策推动下，全国天然气消费保持较快增长，LNG价格同比上升。2014~2018年，全国天然气表观消费量分别增长10.6%、2.8%、12.5%、14.7%、18.3%。2019年前三季全国天然气表观消费量同比增长9.9%。2017年、2018年，全国天然气保持较快增长的重要原因包括环保政策趋严，居民、工业用气量保持快速增长。2014~2018年，全国LNG市场价分别为4799、3924、3033、3759、4426元/吨。2019年前10个月全国LNG市场价为3878元/吨。
2018年中石油销售进口气净亏损249亿元，同比增亏近10亿元。2018年，中石油在进口天然气及液化天然气数量大幅增加的情况下，天然气与管道板块努力采取措施控制进口气亏损，销售进口气净亏损人民币249.07亿元，比上年同期增亏人民币9.60亿元。2019年前三季管道天然气进口均价为2.03元/立方米，而全国基准门站含税价格均值为1.68元/立方米，进口气价高于门站价，价格出现倒挂。
天然气上游集中度高叠加燃气需求高增，气源价格易涨难跌，2016年首次保供期价格上浮，2019年首次淡季价格上浮。2019年春夏淡季天然气定价中，经过三个多月的讨价还价，目前绝大多数的下游企业与中石油签订了新的供应合同，但涨幅并未全部达到中石油计划的20%。中国石油将与买家就气价较政府设定的城市门站价上调约6.4%达成一致，气源为国内常规气田和中亚管道进口，这两者合计占中国石油总天然气供应的逾60%。
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