丘鈦科技 ( 01478.HK ) ：產品結構改善，盈利迎拐點，給予“優於大市“”評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優於大市
投資要點：
手機攝像模組及指紋模組主流廠商。公司主營手機攝像頭模組及指紋識別模組業務，於2014年12月在香港主板上市，2017年認購新鉅科技36%的股權，整合鏡頭光學能力；2018年，公司成功開發出第二代屏下指紋模組，並順利量產前置3D結構光模組。
三攝滲透率顯著提升。雙攝、三攝、潛望式、3D等推動攝像模組行業快速增長，特別是三攝，其滲透率有望在2019年大幅提升。根據搜狐網報道，2019年九月發佈的13款手機中，有8款都採用了後置三攝設計，3款採用後置四射方案。蘋果最新發布的iPhone11Pro配置從原先的二攝（廣角+長焦）升級到三攝（廣角+長焦+超廣角）。我們認為後置三攝已經成為當代智能手機的“標配”，而後置四射則有望成為智能手機的下一個趨勢。
出貨量提升疊加產品結構改善，19年迎拐點。2017年，公司取得了華為攝像頭模組的直接供應商資格，2018年下半年開始，銷量增長顯著提速，19年上半年出貨量1.82億顆，同比增長77%。產品結構亦有所改善，1000萬像素及以上產品佔比達到50%左右，我們預計也有望推動Asp及毛利率的改善。此外，新鉅科技19Q1實現淨利潤1.0億新台幣，19Q2淨利潤2.2億新台幣，顯著回暖，公司19年投資收益有望大幅好轉。
指紋模組：屏下指紋佔比提升，結構改善致盈利能力提升。根據網易援引HISMarkit預計，2018年屏幕指紋模組總出貨量達到3000萬片，依託於屏幕指紋傳感技術的改進和手機全面屏設計，預測2019年屏幕指紋出貨量比2018年增長6倍，達到1.8億片。光學屏下指紋已經在部分中端機型上開始應用，如Oppo的K1以及紅米K20等。我們認為在成本下降推動下，光學屏下指紋也有望持續向中低端滲透。2019年，公司屏下指紋出貨量維持高位，2-6月光學屏下指紋模組出貨佔比50-60%左右，有望推動Asp及毛利率的改善。
盈利預測與投資建議。我們預計公司2019-2021年分別實現歸母淨利潤4.69、6.86和8.09億元，同比增速分別為3157%、46%和18%；分別實現每股收益0.41、0.60和0.71元；結合同業估值和公司增速，給予2019年PE28-30X，對應11.48-12.30元/股，按照1港元=0.90元人民幣估算，對應合理價值區間12.76-13.67港元/股，首次覆蓋，給予優於大市評級。
風險提示。手機出貨量下滑，三攝、3D等推進不及預期，模組價格戰致價格大幅下跌。
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