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瑞銀:予恆指明年底目標28700點 料阿里(9988.HK)上市提振港股氣氛
格隆匯 11-26 13:09

瑞銀髮表2020年中資股展望報告表示,相信中國經歷經濟高速增長階段後,政府自2013年以來在多個不同行業訂立新標準作合規、風險管理,經過2019年適度放鬆政策監管,估計中國於2020年會重新推動市場開放、國企改革及金融改革,將會令本地公司「造大造強」,該行料明年國企改革可迎來更多投資機會,看好受惠改革的企業及行業領導者。

該行指,在基本情境預測下,予MSCI中國指數於明年年底目標93點、予滬深300指數明年年底目標4,400點、予恆指明年年底目標28,700點(相當於預測明年市盈率11倍、預測每股盈利增長4.5%)、予MSCI香港指數明年年底目標14,500點。

瑞銀指,隨着更多內地企業在恆指比重增加下,對恆指前景持建設性看法,相信阿里巴巴(09988.HK)在11月下旬來港掛牌,將可帶動市場情緒;該行在基本情境預測下予恆指明年底目標28,700點、在上升(upside)情境下予恆指明年底目標30,000點(相當預測明年市盈率11.4倍、預測每股盈利增長6.4%)、在下跌(downside)情境下予恆指明年底目標25,000點(相當預測明年市盈率10倍、預測每股盈利增長2%)。

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