美團點評-W(03690.HK)：運營能力得到驗證，再度聚焦長期發展，維持“買入”評級，目標價116.43港元
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
目標價：116.43港元
事件
11月21日，美團點評公佈2019年三季度財報，3Q公司實現營業收入275億元，同比增長44.1%；實現歸母淨利潤13.4億元（vs.3Q18扣除優先股公允價值變動影響虧損35.4億元），較2Q盈利環比增長52%。
評論
三季度GTV與營收增長加速，盈利持續提升，超市場預期。三季度美團總交易規模上升至1946億，同比+33.6%；變現率較去年同期提升1.0pct至14.1%。三季度實現總營收275億元，同比增長39.4%，超市場預期。實現歸母淨利潤13.4億元，其中在經調整經營利潤層面，外賣實現盈利約3億元，主體業務盈利能力持續提升。
餐飲外賣三季度加速，戰略上轉守為攻。三季度美團外賣GTV增速達40%，達到1119億，超行業整體增速（約30%），公司在高線城市的市佔率進一步上升。營收收入較3Q18增長39.4%，收入的增長主要來自於訂單量的增長，客單價和變現率則相對平穩。同時隨着訂單規模效應增強以及運營效率的提升，三季度騎手成本控制良好，毛利率較3Q18提升3.0pct。展望未來，隨着外賣市場格局逐漸清晰，我們認為美團將擴大投入，持續致力於擴大訂單規模，而變現率與客單價則預計將進一步放緩。
?到店、酒旅收入增長繼續加速，酒店間夜數增長強勁。三季度到店、酒旅業務總交易規模達639億元，同比增長29.6%，增速進一步擴大；實現收入62億元，同比增長39.3%；變現率達9.7%，同比提升0.7pct，環比下降0.5pct。三季度公司持續致力於低星級酒店線上化率的提升，3Q酒店間夜量達1.1億，同比增長44.4%。結合國金自有跟蹤數據，我們認為，美團在酒店間夜量這一指標上的領先優勢將進一步擴大。
新業務：減虧調整期結束，未來投入將增加。單車模式逐漸跑通，公司表示未來將積極加碼單車業務，擴大新車投放量。此外在生鮮零售業務上，美團通過自營模式的“美團買菜”和平台模式的“美團閃購”兩種路徑積極探索生鮮業務。我們認為新業務處於早期跑通模式階段，投入加大意味着虧損的加大，但長期來看則有利於提升平台整體價值。
估值與投資建議
根據公司近期的戰略規劃方向，我們分別調整了19-21年到家、到店、新業務營收規模的預測，最終總營收的調整幅度分別為+3.6%/+6.9%/+9.5%；同時根據前三季度的費用率情況以及結合管理層對短期經營利潤層面和業務投入的指引，我們對美團中長期的盈利能力更為樂觀，並把19-21年的經調整盈利預測由-0.35/-0.01/0.33元調整為EPS0.17/0.17/0.19元。
採用DCF方法估值（WACC：11.6%/永續增長率：1%），12個月目標價升至港幣116.43元，維持“買入”投資評級。
風險提示
1）商户產品質量和服務口碑的波動；2）新業務拓展不達預期影響估值；3）限售股解禁風險。
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