頤海國際(01579.HK)：火鍋調味料和中式複合調味料具備潛在增長動力，給予“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
公司2019H1火鍋調味料、中式複合調味料和方便速食產品業務均維持高增速。公司2019H1火鍋調味料收入同比增長41.44%，其中關聯方同比增長32.57%，第三方同比增長60.34%。公司2019H1中式複合調味料收入同比增長63.45%。公司2019H1方便速食產品業務收入3.41億，同比增長216.77%。公司2019H1總收入同比增長64.92%至16.56億元。公司2019H1歸屬股東淨利潤同比增長46.47%至2.70億元，其增速落後於收入增速的主要原因為方便速食產品業務通過JV開展，使得合併報表少數股東損益同比增長約320%。
公司關聯方業務收入佔比短暫下降，火鍋調味料和中式複合調味料均具備潛在增長動力。公司關聯方火鍋調味料業務增速持續落後於第三方業務的情況我們預計於明年可能有所恢復。2019H1公司第三方火鍋調味料、中式複合調味料和方便速食產品業務增速均超過60%。火鍋調味料和中式複合調味料行業增速維持在雙位數，整體需求強勁。公司品牌具備優勢，渠道持續擴張，預計未來仍將維持高於行業的增速。
調整2019-2021年EPS預測分別為0.71、0.95和1.21元/股。我們預計公司2019-2021年EPS預測分別為0.71、0.95和1.21元/股，當前股價對應2019-2021年PE估值分別為63.44、47.81和37.48倍。公司現金流狀況良好,我們預計公司仍能維持3年CAGR超過30%的歸屬股東淨利潤增長率。我們上調合理估值至50倍2020年PE倍數，對應每股合理價值為53.28元HKD，上調評級至增持。
風險提示：1、方便速食產品增長不及預期。方便速食產品增速不及預期會使公司收入增長率下降，關聯交易佔比提升；2、銷售費用增加過快。銷售費用增加過快會使公司盈利能力下降，淨利潤增速下降
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