海螺水泥(00914.HK)：無懼淡季，成本為核心優勢
機構：國泰君安
摘要
19H1年業績回顧：上半年營收同比增加56.6%至716.4億元人民幣；毛利同比增加15.5%至226.0億元,毛利率為31.5%(去年同期為42.8%);歸母淨利同比小幅增長17.9%至152.8億元,基本每股收益同比增17.9%至2.88元。
上半年公司水泥熟料淨銷量同比增長6%至1.46億噸，對應3億噸預期完成度接近一半。受益於產品綜合銷價及銷量增加，公司（除出口以外）所有區域建材產品收入均有上升，毛利率平均水平高於40%。貿易業務、商品混凝土和骨料毛利率有所下滑，而公司水泥熟料產品的毛利率均進一步提高。
工信部數據顯示1-9月全國水泥行業實現營業收入7199億元，同比增14.3％；利潤總額1318億元，同比增25.3％，與此相比集團三季度業績好於行業平均水平。向前看：
1)南北地區水泥行情分化。全國水泥價格走勢仍然是呈現南強北弱的格局,華東中南地區明顯優於其他地區,西北華北地區價格相對穩定,西南地區走勢偏弱。同時，由於蒙華鐵路主要運輸煤炭且運力有限，通車後估計對華中及陝西地區水泥市場衝擊有限。
2)噸成本或維持穩定。國內煤炭供給整體寬鬆，近期動力煤價格重心不斷下移，因此雖然成本中輔材受環保影響價格可能小幅上升，並且公司42.5級水泥佔比提高令燃耗和電耗增加，但人工成本和折舊費用料變動不大，預計噸成本全年和2018年水平接近。
3)海外項目產能逐步發揮。上半年公司海外新建項目產能逐步發揮，銷量同比增長約50%。公司在東南亞和中亞地區的項目仍在穩步推進，但推進速度可能放緩。7月以來，烏茲別克斯坦卡爾希項目在10月18日開工，設計熟料與水泥產能120萬噸和100萬噸；老撾琅勃拉邦項目預計年底可以實現投產。國內水泥價格較高，可能令公司對未來國內國際併購趨於審慎。
估值：海螺水泥(914.HK)11月20日收市價報47.45港元，目前市場平均目標價為54.5元，潛在上升空間10.4%。19/20年市場預期市盈率7.9/8.3倍,市場預期股息率5.1%/4.6%。
風險：協同限產破裂，需求不及預期，煤炭和原材料價格大幅上漲。
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