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中國海洋石油(00883.HK):增長劇情得以強化,維持“買入“評級,目標價14.00港元
格隆匯 11-25 15:04

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:14.00港元

近期隨着挪威和巴西一系列新項目將於2020年投產,市場不僅對貿易保護主義抬頭形勢下的原油需求存在擔憂,還愈發擔心供給激增問題,但我們仍維持此前對油價的看法,即中短期內布油在60美元每桶的重要心理關口價位附近具有一定韌性。同時,我們認為中東供應風險或存在被市場低估的潛在可能。

中海油於2019年第3季度再度實現如期運營業績。季度內油氣總產量同比增長9.7%至1.248億桶油當量,一定程度上受益於較好天氣環境;資本開支同比增長27.9%至人民幣195億元,而前9個月資本開支則達到全年預算中間值的71%。基於目前趨勢,2019財年產量有望超越管理層指引上限。此外,公司在國內及海外亦有許多頗具前景的新項目來支持其3年增產計劃。

我們分別調整2019-2021年盈利預測3.6%/-0.5%/-1.4%至人民幣609.34億元/人民幣682.02億元/人民幣764.81億元。此次調整反映了我們對產量更樂觀的估計以及更新後的外匯假設。我們對油價和桶油成本的假設維持不變。

我們維持“買入”的投資評級以及14.00港元的目標價。我們的目標價分別對應9.2倍/8.2倍/7.4倍2019-2021年市盈率,且較我們用折現現金流方法得出的18.84港元每股的估值有25.7%的折讓。

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