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中金:暖冬建築趕工帶旺鋼材水泥需求 關注海螺水泥(0914.HK)等行業龍頭
格隆匯 11-25 14:31

中金公司表示,受惠於暖冬趕工需求的釋放,近期中國鋼材、水泥價格表現強勁,螺紋噸鋼毛利創年內新高,短期建議關注海螺水泥(0914.HK)等行業龍頭。

報告指出,水泥旺季程度和持續時間均超預期,主要受惠於地產需求較好、暖冬趕工需求催化和下游充裕的重點工程。暖冬催化鋼價反彈強勁,加上社會庫存創五年新低,煤炭需求進入供暖旺季。總體來看,市場對煤炭板塊的預期或過度悲觀,短期存在預期修復空間。

報告關注如煤炭、鋼鐵優質標的中國神華(1088.HK)A和H股、寶鋼股份(600019.SH);水泥龍頭海螺水泥A及H股、中國建材(3323.HK)、華潤水泥(1313.HK)。

報告預期,明年水泥板塊需求有望維持穩健,盈利有望保持高位韌性,預計明年鋼鐵需求增速或隨地產放緩,供給仍將繼續攀升;鋼價或走弱,噸毛利弱穩為主。煤炭行業方面,報告預期需求微增,但明年仍有新產能投放進一步增加供給,料明年煤價中樞將繼續趨弱。

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