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崑崙能源(00135.HK):被低估的天然氣銷售儲運龍頭,給予“買入”評級,目標價9.50港元
格隆匯 11-25 09:37

機構:國元證券

評級:買入

目標價:9.50港元

投資要點

中石油旗下天然氣終端銷售平台:

公司是中國石油天然氣股份有限公司控股的國際性能源公司,業務主要包括天然氣銷售、天然氣管道、LNG加工與儲運、原油勘探與生產四大板塊,分佈於中國31個省區市。2018年,公司銷售天然氣220億立方米,銷售液化石油氣700萬噸,LNG接收站接卸能力1,900萬噸。

資源優勢顯著,未來銷氣量增長可期:

2018年10月,中石油優化調整天然氣銷售管理體制,將天然氣批發銷售與終端零售業務實行一體化管理。2019年上半年,公司銷售天然氣126億立方米,同比增長20.3%,其中城燃業務增速達25.2%,處行業領先。預計未來公司將藉助母公司資源優勢和協同效應,通過併購等多種方式增強終端市場拓展力度,未來銷氣量增速有望保持行業領先水平。

LNG接收站規模優勢明顯:

目前我國已投產21座LNG接收站,總產能7,987萬噸/年,公司旗下3座LNG接收站總產能佔比達23.8%,僅次於中海油(已建成)的3,440萬噸/年。此外,公司京唐LNG接收站應急調峯工程與江蘇LNG擴建工程預計分別於2020年及2021年投產。建成後,公司三座接收站產能將達2,600萬噸,規模優勢進一步擴大,持續搶佔國內LNG接收市場。

首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價9.50港元:

我們預計公司2019-2021年EPS分別為0.71/0.83/0.94元,當前股價對應PE為8.8/7.5/6.6倍,明顯低於燃氣行業平均估值,我們給予公司2019年12倍目標PE,對應目標價為9.50港元,較現價有37%的上漲空間,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

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