美團點評W(03690.HK)：3季度業績強勁，受益於購買頻次提升及商户服務，維持“買入”評級，目標價110.50港元
機構：交通銀行
評級：買入
目標價：110.50港元
交易規模高速增長拉動收入超預期。美團2019年3季度收入275億元人民幣（下同），同比/環比增長44%/21%，較我們/市場預期高5%/6%。調整後淨利潤19億元（高於上季度的15億元），超出我們/市場預期的7,900萬元/3.94億元，主要由於收入超預計及運營效率提升。調整後運營利潤率/淨利潤率分別為5%/7%（去年同期為-14%/-13%），環比持平。
亮點：1）外賣業務交易規模繼續穩健增長，同比增40%，主要受到38%的日單量同比增長及單價提升帶動，調整後運營利潤率為2%，較上季度低，原因是夏季期間對騎手和客户的獎賞增加；2）到店酒旅交易規模增長再次加快，主要受到美團生態內的交叉銷售增加及垂直領域（如美容、親子）的交易規模迅速增長所帶動。受益於線上營銷迅速擴張，商户數增加50%以上，到店酒旅收入增長達39%；3）新業務收入增速65%，調整後運營虧損率同比收窄至23%，主要由於單車折舊和打車司機成本下降。?展望：我們預計4季度收入258億元，同比增30%，環比由於淡季因素下降。同比增長動力來自：1）訂單量增加帶動外賣業務收入同比增長27%；2）到店酒旅收入同比增長34%，主要受營銷服務和酒店間夜量達到1.16億的推動；3）B2B和新零售增長帶動新業務收入同比增34%。我們預計調整後運營利潤3.35億元，環比下降，主要由於較3季度高的單均配送成本及酒店業務補貼。
估值。我們上調2019/20年收入預期2%/3%，上調2019年調整後淨利潤至28億元，主要由於新業務虧損收窄及核心業務利潤率提升。2020年，我們預計公司收入將繼續穩定增長，但新業務投入有機會重啟（如B端服務、新零售及共享單車）。基於SOTP，我們上調目標價至110.50港元（原109.40港元），對應2019/20年市銷率6.2倍/5倍，維持買入。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
