新奧能源( 2688.HK ) ：公司主席股權轉讓細節更新，重申“買入”評級
機構：招商證券
評級：買入
■新奧生態控股披露了估值細節，使主席的多數股權轉讓又邁進一步
■整體交易結構與預期相似，新奧能源將認購新奧生態至少10%的新股
■對新奧能源的投資邏輯影響有限，重申買入評級
新奧能源32.80%的已發行股本轉讓代價為258億元人民幣
繼8月30日首次公佈王主席股權轉讓消息後，新奧生態(ENNEH,600803SH，未評級)披露了新奧能源股份轉讓給新奧生態的估值數據，其中新奧能源32.80%的已發行股本轉讓代價為258億元人民幣。此次交易的支付對價包括：1）Santos(STO,未評級)公司9.97%的股份，作價71億元人民幣（對應Santos股價為7.08澳元）；2）新奧生態的新發行股份，作價133億元人民幣（發行價9.88元人民幣/股）；以及現金人民幣55億元。55億元人民幣的融資將來自新股發行（向不超過10個指定投資者，且不超過新奧生態現有股份的20%）以及新奧生態資產負債表的剩餘現金。圖8顯示了發行20%的新股假設下該筆交易的更多細節。該項交易正在等待新奧生態股東和其他監管機構（證監會、商務部、國家發改委）的批准，我們預計最早將於2020年上半年完成。
新奧能源將認購新奧生態的新股
此外，新奧生態的管理層還表示，新奧能源已同意認購此次20%新發行股份中的10%（2,460萬股/24億元人民幣）。截至19年上半年，鑑於新奧能源擁有在手現金達77億元人民幣，我們認為新奧能源參與該筆交易不會產生財務方面的擔憂。此次股權轉讓後，主席在新奧能源的實際持股比例將從32.8%降至22.5%，股票確權後他在新奧生態的實際持股比例則會從48.4%升至75.3%，而發行20%的新股後，實際持股比例將降至69%。雖然新奧能源參與新奧生態的新股發行也將使主席在新奧生態的實際持股比例上升，但我們注意到這一影響並不明顯。
本次交易無實質影響，重申買入評級
總體而言，我們認為大股東的股權轉讓對新奧能源現有運營及其投資邏輯的影響有限。此外，鑑於該結構與之前的版本和預期相似，我們認為市場已經完全消化了主席的股權轉讓，對股價的影響有限。我們重申買入評級，維持盈利預測和111港元的現金流量貼現法目標價不變。
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