中國旺旺(0151.HK)：強勁毛利率帶動1HFY20業績超預期，目標價7.70港元
機構：招銀國際
目標價： 7.70港元
1HFY20淨利潤同比增長18%，較市場預期/我們預期高6%/4%，主要歸因於毛利率較預期強勁。公司將採取多品牌戰略和透過多元化渠道來推動增長及提高毛利率。我們將2020財年淨利潤預測上調3%，目標價從7.50港元上調至7.70港元。維持買入評級。
1HFY20表現超預期。收入同比增長1%至93億元人民幣，較市場預期高3%。除了因天氣欠佳而導致冰品收入下跌雙位數外，核心品牌（佔收入85%）實現中個位數的增長。新產品佔收入的9%（2019財年為7%）。毛利率同比增長4.4個百分點至48.9%，較市場預期高1.9個百分點，當中50%/25%/25%受政府削減增值税/優化產品組合/原材料成本下降因素所驅動。新產品的研發開支比率增加1.0個百分點，帶動銷售開支比率上升0.9個百分點至28.5%。
實現多品牌戰略和產品升級，以改善增長和毛利率。公司利用多品牌戰略，針對不同年齡羣組（包括嬰兒、兒童、年輕人至老年人）和消費者的需求差異（如減肥、OL零食），大量引進高利潤率的新產品（如田舍米燒、旺旺吸的凍等）和進行產品升級（推出健康和營養產品，如低糖和無反式脂肪酸米果、旺仔純牛奶等），另一邊廂則減少銷售低利潤率的副品牌產品。新產品銷售佔比從2019財年的7%提高至1HFY20的9%。
多元化渠道推動增長。在電子商務、孕婦裝商店和主題商店渠道快速增長下，新興渠道的銷售佔比從1HFY19的5%增長至1HFY20中高個位數。管理層透露，新興渠道的毛利率一般高於傳統渠道，因為銷售額主要來自新產品。然而，由於較高的運營支出比率，新興銷售渠道的經營利潤率接近或略低於傳統渠道。我們認為隨着銷量增加，經營利潤率將會有所改善。
2HFY20E展望。公司將通過多品牌戰略、產品升級和多元化渠道繼續改善收入增長和毛利潤。不過，由於奶粉和糖價格反彈上升，我們預計2HFY20E的原材料價格將更高。我們預計2HFY20E的毛利率將同比增長0.7個百分點至46.8%，升幅低於1HFY20。雖然公司採用多品牌戰略和推出新產品，管理層的目標廣促費用率仍將維持在歷史區間，開發新產品的研發開支費用率將在未來1-2年內維持在1.5%左右。
上調目標價至 7.70港元。我們將2020財年的淨利潤預測上調3%，以反映更高毛利率預測。目標價從7.50港元上調至7.70港元，仍基於21.7倍2020財年預測市盈率（歷史平均水平）。催化劑：（1）收入增長提速；（2）利潤率好過預期。風險：（1）競爭激烈；（2）食品安全問題；（3）原材料價格上升。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
