新奧能源(2688.HK ):肇慶調研展現綜合能源廣闊前景,重申“買入”評級,目標價111.0港元
機構:招商證券
評級:買入
目標價:111.0港元
■肇慶新工業園調研強調了新工業園區綜合能源利用的投資機會
■綜合能源解決方案可節省能源和空間,受到了政府的大力支持
■新奧的綜合能源業務在同業中處於領先地位,維持買入評級和111.0港元目標價不變
肇慶新區開發加快,帶動燃氣和綜合能源發展
新奧管理層組織了為期兩天的肇慶實地調研活動,展示了肇慶新區、綜合能源項目和工業客户的增長前景。新區佔地500平方千米,核心區面積115平方千米,其中與新奧簽約綜合能源解決方案的面積達65平方千米。目前計劃設立15個綜合能源站點,其中3個已處運營狀態,另有3個在建。目前為止,每個站點的實際投資約為3.0億元人民幣或約5,000萬美元。其餘9個待建站點將隨更多公司進駐新區相繼建設。我們參觀的綜合能源站點主要是在每年3-12月為當地周邊的空調設施提供製冷服務。
同地方政府合作平衡了風險回報
該項目70%歸新奧所有,另外的30%由政府所持有。新奧在這一大型項目的競爭中脱穎而出得益於其良好的聲譽,以及同地方政府多年的合作經驗。肇慶新區於2012年啟動開發,並正在加速擴張,市政府將在未來1-2年內搬遷至該新區。管理層強調公司發展的重點是提供能源解決方案,而不僅僅是傳統燃氣銷售。
重申買入評級,新奧的綜合能源業務在同業中處於領先地位
此次展示的新區大型項目是新奧截至19年上半年82個在手項目之一。根據估算,綜合能源系統至多能實現25%的節能,目前受到政府鼓勵,目標是一半的新工業園區應配備綜合能源項目。我們預計新奧的綜合能源業務將實現強勁增長,或佔到19財年毛利潤的6%,且這一佔比到2021財年預計將上升至13%(相比之下中國燃氣和華潤燃氣19財年的這一佔比均小於1%)。重申買入評級,維持盈利預測及111.0港元目標價不變。

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