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石藥集團(1093.HK):2019年第3季度業績穩健,管線佈局深厚,維持“買入“評級,目標價24.90港元
格隆匯 11-21 08:31

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:24.90港元

2019年前三季度石藥集團收入/股東淨利分別同比上升27.5%/24.0%至人民幣16,761百萬元/2,811百萬元,基本符合預期。2019年第3季度,收入/股東淨利分別同比上升27.4%/22.3%。

研發管線進展快於預期且厚度高於預期。公司目前有在研項目300餘項,其中50餘項/40餘項/20餘項/110餘項為大分子創新藥/小分子創新藥/新型製劑/仿製藥。就創新藥管線而言,有12個創新產品預計將於2020年-2022年上市,包括5個大分子、3個小分子以及4個新型製劑,它們的合併銷售峯值預計將達到人民幣280億元以上。另外,超過60個仿製藥預計將於2019年-2022年獲批生產,其中銷售額過億元的品種預計將超過50個。

2019年前3季度業績揭示公司的營運十分穩健,增速保持強勁,並且抗風險能力以及研發能力優異。因此,我們依然認為公司是中長線投資的一個不錯的標的。考慮到2019年前三季度業績大致符合預期,我們暫不調整2019年-2021年的盈利預測。然而,鑑於公司的研發管線進展快於預期且厚度高於預期,我們上調石藥集團的目標價至24.90港元,對應29.0倍2020年的市盈率,並重申“買入”投資評級。

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