北京首都機場股份(0694.HK):提高利潤分配比例,提振投資者信心,首次覆蓋給予“推薦”評級
機構:國聯證券
評級:推薦
事件:
公司近期公告,擬調整利潤分配方案,計劃於2019至2022年四個財政年度的現金分紅比例不低於本公司每年度的現金分紅比例將不低於該年度淨利潤的45%。於2020年至2022年期間的每一財政年度,本公司的年度派息金額每年將不低於人民幣7億元。
投資要點:
積極應對分流影響,努力鞏固投資者信心隨着北京大興國際機場於的正式運營,公司預計2019年至2022年期間北京首都機場的航空交通流量會受大興機場分流影響,且淨利潤將較2018年有所下滑。面對上述情況,公司決定公司建議適當提升分紅比例並明確最低派息金額,以確保股東於公司利潤波動期間可得到穩定的投資回報。
悲觀預期已釋放,實際影響或有限
我們認為市場此前對於公司分流影響的預期過於悲觀。根據民航局的相關規劃,首都機場的旅客吞吐量在19-21年將面臨確定性下滑,但考慮到:一方面,東航京滬線已確認留守首都機場,意味着首都機場仍是公商務旅客的出行首選;另一方面,民航局對國際航線搬遷未有明確數量計劃,首都機場優異的區位優勢或將導致80%以上的國際航線繼續留守。而未來首都機場的國際航線佔比會得到提高,帶動人均旅客的非航業務收入增長。
首次覆蓋,給予“推薦”評級
我們預計公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤分別為23.7億元、19.5億元、14.6億元,對應PE為13、16、21倍,顯著低於A股同行業水平,亦考慮到其提高利潤分配比例,首次覆蓋,給予“推薦”評級。
風險提示
政策推進不及預期、宏觀需求疲弱

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