植耀輝: 港股縱急升 後市去向仍存保留
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，雖然未見有特別利好消息，但恆指卻連續第二個交易日急升，累積升幅達767點或2.9%，並再次升破27,000點水平。筆者不會刻意找借口去解釋大市表現，不過從昨日所見，南向總成交金額達120億元，佔大市成交約15%，同時個別重磅股如內銀及騰訊等均見資金追捧，這或可解釋大市上升之部分原因。只是基於兩大變數，包括中美貿易談判及本地局勢仍未明朗，相信大市再升空間不大，預計250天線約27,440點會有相當大阻力。
今日跟大家一併分析阿里(09988.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)兩者投資價值。曾幾何時，百度、阿里及騰訊合稱內地互聯網三大巨頭，亦即「BAT」，但百度現今表現已被比下去，市值亦僅得406億美元，估值亦已被京東、美團(03690.HK)以至字節跳動等趕上。不過論地位則騰訊及阿里依然是「大阿哥」
先談騰訊。就以最新季績表現，由於大眾已對其業績有一定了解，故筆者直接分享看法。較為失望的，是騰訊經歷去年內地暫定版號事件後，突顯業務過於依賴增值服務。無疑相關範疇可「保底」，但卻缺乏增長亮點，而且面對相當高政策風險，亦令外界開始擔心高增長神話是否已不再。所以未來一至兩年對騰訊而言相當關鍵，5G興起將會對整個互聯網生態有翻天覆地的改變，騰訊能否可趁此延續「企鵝」神話，且看馬化騰有何板斧矣！
至於阿里，業務依然維持理想增長，截至9月底止第二季度業績，收入1,190.2億元(人民幣．下同)，按年升近四成，非公認會計準則季度盈利亦按年上升40%至327.5億元，經調整EBITDA 371億元，按年升39%。而在剛過去的「雙十一」購物節，雖然增幅有所放緩，但交易量仍同比增加26%。除淘寶外，阿里旗下之Lazada為東南亞領先電商平台之一，反映該公司在網上零售發展擁大有極大優勢。
當然，阿里另一強項在於阿里雲的發展。阿里雲是世界第三大、亞太地區最大的IaaS及基礎設施公用事業服務供應商，阿里雲也是中國最大的公有雲服務(包括PaaS和IaaS服務)供應商。根據IDC數據，今年首季阿里雲在中國市佔率達43%，騰訊雖然急起直追，但市佔率只得12%而已。所以平心而論，雖然筆者是騰訊「粉絲」，但純以業務發展而言，不得不承認阿里確是優於騰訊。
筆者並未持有以上股份~
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