植耀辉: 港股纵急升 後市去向仍存保留
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，虽然未见有特别利好消息，但恒指却连续第二个交易日急升，累积升幅达767点或2.9%，并再次升破27,000点水平。笔者不会刻意找借口去解释大市表现，不过从昨日所见，南向总成交金额达120亿元，占大市成交约15%，同时个别重磅股如内银及腾讯等均见资金追捧，这或可解释大市上升之部分原因。只是基於两大变数，包括中美贸易谈判及本地局势仍未明朗，相信大市再升空间不大，预计250天线约27,440点会有相当大阻力。
今日跟大家一并分析阿里(09988.HK)及腾讯(00700.HK)两者投资价值。曾几何时，百度、阿里及腾讯合称内地互联网三大巨头，亦即「BAT」，但百度现今表现已被比下去，市值亦仅得406亿美元，估值亦已被京东、美团(03690.HK)以至字节跳动等赶上。不过论地位则腾讯及阿里依然是「大阿哥」
先谈腾讯。就以最新季绩表现，由於大众已对其业绩有一定了解，故笔者直接分享看法。较为失望的，是腾讯经历去年内地暂定版号事件後，突显业务过於依赖增值服务。无疑相关范畴可「保底」，但却缺乏增长亮点，而且面对相当高政策风险，亦令外界开始担心高增长神话是否已不再。所以未来一至两年对腾讯而言相当关键，5G兴起将会对整个互联网生态有翻天覆地的改变，腾讯能否可趁此延续「企鹅」神话，且看马化腾有何板斧矣！
至於阿里，业务依然维持理想增长，截至9月底止第二季度业绩，收入1,190.2亿元(人民币．下同)，按年升近四成，非公认会计准则季度盈利亦按年上升40%至327.5亿元，经调整EBITDA 371亿元，按年升39%。而在刚过去的「双十一」购物节，虽然增幅有所放缓，但交易量仍同比增加26%。除淘宝外，阿里旗下之Lazada为东南亚领先电商平台之一，反映该公司在网上零售发展拥大有极大优势。
当然，阿里另一强项在於阿里云的发展。阿里云是世界第三大、亚太地区最大的IaaS及基础设施公用事业服务供应商，阿里云也是中国最大的公有云服务(包括PaaS和IaaS服务)供应商。根据IDC数据，今年首季阿里云在中国市占率达43%，腾讯虽然急起直追，但市占率只得12%而已。所以平心而论，虽然笔者是腾讯「粉丝」，但纯以业务发展而言，不得不承认阿里确是优於腾讯。
笔者并未持有以上股份~
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