東陽光藥(1558.HK)：新增兩款降糖藥物，糖尿病全佈局初步形成，維持“買入”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
投資要點
事件：近日，公司發佈公告，以20.57億元人民幣收購廣東東陽光藥業的兩個在研降糖藥物——焦穀氨酸榮格列淨和利拉魯肽。交易款項分為3個部分：（1）第一期款項10.29億元於購買協議生效後30個工作日內一次性支付；（2）第二期款項5.14億元於藥物臨牀試驗達到里程碑節點後付款；（3）尾款5.14億元分3期支付：年銷售額達到15、25、35億元時分別支付1.03、2.06、2.06億元。
糖尿病市場空間廣闊，新靶點降糖藥成長可期：目前我國糖尿病藥物的市場規模約660億元，但患者治療率僅30%，70%的潛在市場有望被開發。目前市場上已有較多的降糖藥物，其中胰島素、α-糖苷酶抑制劑、雙胍類、磺酰脲類以及格列奈類藥物合計佔比達到85%。新靶點口服降糖藥物，如DPP4抑制劑、GLP1受體激動劑、SGLT2抑制劑等佔比還較低，隨着市場推廣的加強，這類藥物的市場份額將逐步提升。
外延併購完善產品管線，糖尿病全佈局初步完成：本次收購的榮格列淨和利拉魯肽分別屬於SGLT2抑制劑和GLP1受體激動劑。榮格列淨目前已進入III期臨牀試驗，預計2020年病人入組，若進展順利有望於2021年完成III期臨牀試驗並申報生產，2022年獲批。預計榮格列淨將成為國內第5或第6個上市的SGLT2抑制劑藥物。利拉魯肽已獲得臨牀試驗批件，臨牀試驗正在積極推進中。國內已上市的GLP1受體激動劑較多，但該類藥物降糖效果良好、目前市佔率還很低，我們認為公司的利拉魯肽上市後有望取得一定的市場份額，帶來業績增量。公司的胰島素和DPP4抑制劑均處於上市前夕，再加上本次收購的兩個產品，公司目前已經基本上完成了糖尿病領域的佈局。
可威持續增長動力不減，產品線快速擴容保障可持續發展：根據我們的測算，國內流感治療和預防的理論市場空間在190億元左右，即使在高速增長的態勢下，可威當前的年銷售額也才50-60億元，遠未達到行業天花板。此外，公司也積極擴充產品管線，今年上半年收購了26個仿製藥品種，同時近年也將有在研新藥獲批。整體來看，我們認為公司中短期的業績增長有保障，而產品線的不斷豐富也助力公司長期的可持續發展。
盈利預測和估值：考慮到本次收購的2個品種在2022年以後才會貢獻收入，公司現有產品的銷售仍然保持良好的增長趨勢，我們維持之前的盈利預測，預計2019-2021年實現收入58.14億元、71.99億元、90.42億元，歸母淨利潤18.3億元、22.5億元、27.9億元。維持目標價61港元，對應2019-2020年分別為13.5、11.0倍市盈率，20PEG僅為0.47，較現價有30.1%的上升空間，維持買入評級。
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