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特步國際(1368.HK):增長步入正軌但被嚴重低估,維持“買入“評級,目標價6.20港元
格隆匯 11-20 08:35

機構:國泰君安

評級:買入

目標價:6.20港元

中國雙十一期間銷售表現強勁。在雙十一當天,特步線上銷售額錄得3.5億元人民幣,為歷史新高,特步童裝品牌的線上銷售額錄得85%的同比增長。2019年3季度同店銷售同比增長10%,小幅差於預期,主要是由於國內反常的温暖天氣,但特步管理層表示,2019年10月銷售增速已經恢復到此前的水平。

分別下調2019-2021年每股盈利預測2.8%、5.3%和9.7%至0.301元人民幣、0.350元人民幣和0.407元人民幣。我們預期特步主品牌收入在2019年可實現約20%的同比增長,並在2020年及2021年保持10%-15%的同比增長。我們預期K-Swiss和Palladium兩個品牌對公司2019年收入貢獻5億元人民幣,對2020年收入貢獻13億元人民幣,但由於這兩個品牌的毛利率相對較低,這將對公司的整體毛利率造成負面影響。Saucony和Merrell品牌將在接下來幾年中進行品牌擴張,我們預期其將產生一定虧損。

下調目標價至6.20港元但維持“買入”。我們預期新品牌將在接下來幾年中逐漸步入正軌,並通過跟特步主品牌共享供應鏈及市場資源而形成協同效應。我們預期公司的每股盈利在2018-2021年期間實現10.5%的年複合增長率。我們的新目標價分別相當於18.5倍、16.0倍和13.7倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率,以及45.5%的上漲空間。

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