銀河娛樂(0027.HK)：市場份額繼續下降，維持“中性“評級，目標價50.30港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：中性
目標價：50.30港元
銀娛2019年第3季度贏率正常化下經調整EBITDA同比下降6.7%至39.28億港元，符合我們的預期與彭博一致預期。總體貴賓業務贏率為3.89%，高於通常範圍並令經調整EBITDA增加約1.84億港元。經調整EBITDA為41.12億港元，同比上升1.6%並高於我們的預期4.6%。2019年第3季度淨收入同比下降2.2%至121.7億港元，低於我們的預期2.3%。由於銀娛在貴賓分部與中場分部皆表現不佳，2019年第3季度銀娛的市場份額為20.1%，同比減少1.3個百分點，環比減少0.5個百分點。銀娛博彩總收入為138億港元，同比下降9.9%，差於澳門博彩業毛收入同比下跌4.1%的表現。
我們分別上調2019年至2021年經調整EBITDA預測1.2%、4.2%和11.7%。我們預測2019年至2021年經調整EBITDA分別為166億港元、167億港元和186億港元，分別對應-1.7%、0.7%和11.8%的增長率。自2018年第4季度以來，儘管營收下降，但銀娛始終可以控制成本並將其每季度經調整EBITDA利潤率保持在30%以上，因此我們預期銀娛會有更高的EBITDA利潤率。我們預測2019年至2021年每股攤薄收益分別為3.071港元、3.280港元和3.573港元，相當於4.7%的複合年增長率。
我們將銀娛的目標價由48.00港元上調至50.30港元，並維持“中性”的投資評級。新的目標價相當於12.9倍/12.7倍2019年/2020年經調整EV/EBITDA。銀娛斥資15億港元為澳門銀河、星際酒店以及百老匯推出的物業改善計劃在2020年中期完成後，將有助於公司保住市場份額。然而，因為競爭對手也在進行物業改善和引進新的設施，我們並不認為這是公司發展的主要推動力。近期內，我們預計銀娛將繼續失去市場份額。
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