統一企業中國(0220.HK)：3Q業績增勢延續，新品及品牌投入加大，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價9.31港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：9.31港元
投資要點
3Q19淨利潤4.25億元，同比增長6.5%。公司公佈3Q19淨利潤，前三季度實現淨利潤14.22億元，同比增長27.8%；其中3Q淨利潤4.25億元，同比增長6.5%，低於市場預期，主要由於3Q公司額外確認了0.45億元股息預繳税，去年於4Q計提，剔除税收影響3Q淨利潤增長17.8%。
3Q19收入延續上半年趨勢。公司表示，3Q19收入增速與上半年基本一致，其中方便麪板塊因為3Q競爭加劇略低於上半年增速，飲料板塊略高於上半年增速。分產品來看，3Q湯達人和阿薩姆奶茶仍分別是方便麪和飲料板塊的收入增長驅動力，均維持雙位數增長；此外果汁板塊繼續改善，鮮橙多從2Q19開始正增長，海之言從1H19開始正增長；但是小茗同學和低端方便麪面臨價格戰，銷售承壓。新品方面，3Q公司加大了對無糖茶“茶裏王”和自熱產品“開小灶”的佈局和推廣力度，預計明年有望對收入帶來可觀增量。
VAT利好+原材料成本下行+產品結構提升繼續帶動毛利率提升。受益於VAT利好、原材料成本下行及產品結構提升，3Q毛利率提升趨勢延續，其中VAT貢獻幅度與1H19一致。公司表明儘管競爭加大，但產品價盤仍將維持穩定，但是在廣告及宣傳開支方面適當發力，以應對市場競爭。綜合來看，我們預計毛利率提升可完全抵消銷售費用率的壓力，全年淨利率仍有提升空間。
我們的觀點：由於3Q已經計提股息預繳税，預計4Q有望大幅減虧，但由於品牌和新品投入加大，我們相應下調2019-2020年淨利潤至13.94/15.65億元，同比+35.3%/+12.3%，下調幅度為3.0%/1.3%。下調目標價由9.60港元至9.31港元，下調幅度3%，對應2019年/2020年PE為25.6x/22.8x，維持審慎增持評級。
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