金山軟件(3888.HK)：轉虧為盈，辦公&雲業務表現優異
機構：興業證券
投資要點
公司業績概要：金山軟件（3888.HK）於2019年11月13號晚發佈2019Q3業績：2019Q3公司營收達20.23億元，同比增長32%，環比增長8%，符合Bloomberg一致預期。其中游戲收入達6.6億元(YoY-2%)；辦公軟件類收入達3.83億元(YoY+50%)，雲服務收入達9.76億元(YoY+62%，QoQ+6.3%)；毛利率為40.7%（YoY-4.5pcts）；本期虧損1.39億元，歸母淨利潤0.36億，非控制性權益虧損1.75億元；Q3不計入股權獎勵的歸母淨利潤為0.8億元。
遊戲增長乏力，微降2%，符合預期。2019Q3遊戲收入達6.6億元，同比下滑2%，環比上升16%；遊戲MPU202萬(YoY-41%，QoQ-21%)；《劍網3》手遊發佈遭遇坎坷，公測時間延期，預計2019遊戲收入將有下滑。我們期待明年《劍俠2》、《魔域3D》、《卧龍吟》等新遊的發力
深耕國產辦公軟件，進軍科創板，佈局海外市場。3Q19，辦公軟件業務同比增長50%。公司穩步推進WPS在國有企業，事業單位及政府部門的密切合作；截止3Q19，辦公軟件MAU3.82億(YoY+31%)，其中個人MPU同比高增120%至670萬，我們預計辦公軟件業務19全年收入增長35-40%。金山辦公將於2019年11月18日在上交所科創板上市。
金山雲保持超高速增長，毛利轉正，多行業迅速拓張。2019Q3，金山雲業務收入同比增長62%至9.76億，主要由於移動視頻用户用量的增長及企業雲的增長。3Q19，視頻雲深化了多個技術的落地，同時金山雲正式發佈了一系列智慧金融雲解決方案，以拓寬在金融領域的客户，預計金山雲19年收入增長70%。此外，公司稱考慮分拆金山雲獨立上市。
投資建議：我們預計公司遊戲業務今年因無爆款遊戲接檔繼續不及預期，但期待明年《劍俠2》、《魔域3D》、《卧龍吟》等新遊的發力，看好辦公軟件的發展潛力和雲業務多行業解決方案的拓展；同時看好雲和辦公軟件的利潤率有效改善，預計業務結構調整，建議投資者積極關注。
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