波司登(3998.HK)：羽絨服量價齊升，“雙十一“戰績亮眼，維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至4.48港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
評級：4.48港元
投資要點
“雙十一”波司登羽絨服表現亮眼，相較天貓雙十一交易額按年增長26%。數據顯示，波司登天貓旗艦店7分鐘銷售破億，78分鐘超18年全天銷售額，24小時內進店人數超570萬，客單價較去年同期增長約20%。從消費者結構、產品結構及渠道結構來看均有較大變化：首先，從消費者結構來看：消費人羣呈年輕化趨勢，其中18-34歲購買人數同比提升50%；新會員數量增加，且老會員粘性增強，且雙11期間新增會員50萬人，會員數提升100%，會員同比復購人數提升93%；高品質會員增長突出，天貓88VIP購買人數同比提升80%，且一二線購買消費者同比提升54%。其次，從產品結構來看：消費潮流和奢華人羣購買人數提升，奢華、潮流人羣同比提升70%；設計師系列銷售佔比提升：設計師系列銷售同比增幅1139%，佔比同比提升684%。
此外，從渠道結構來看：公司充分利用線上電商渠道打通銷售，“雙十一”全天波司登單品牌全渠道銷售額突破10億元，其中天貓旗艦店銷售額6.5億元，同比增長58%。O2O訂單佔比提升，O2O發貨訂單佔比同比提升77%。
銷量及客單價並未受暖冬影響反而提升。本財年內，公司先後推出售價1000-1800元的中端極寒系列產品及售價5800-11800元的高端登峯系列產品。從“雙十一”天貓數據來看，高客單在店鋪佔比提升，高客單商品（1800元以上）銷售額同比提升147%，佔比同比提升56%。亮眼的成績單與集團成功的戰略轉型分不開。通過品牌重塑、產品創新、品質升級和渠道優化等多方面持續不斷的提升，波司登打造了符合消費者需求的產品。
我們的觀點：隨着冬季的來臨，波司登全面進入銷售旺季，品牌將繼續沿着公司的戰略方針，穩紮穩打，努力取得良好的銷售業績。我們看好公司的科技研發技術與實力、高效供應鏈快反系統、全渠道發展優勢壁壘，公司聚焦羽絨服主業務、協同發展OEM、女裝與童裝業務、均衡發展國內銷售市場以及對海外市場的探索，綜合優勢不斷顯現，市場份額有望不斷提高。我們預計公司FY2020營收為127.6億元，同比+20.5%；淨利潤分別為13.2億元，同比+24.9%，上調目標價至4.48港元，維持“買入”評級。
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